This Wednesday, the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October, which would have once again exceeded 2%, after returning to that threshold last month by breaking below it for four consecutive months.
After registering a strong slowdown in May (1.5%) compared to April (2.8%) and March (3.7%), the inflation index resumed its slightly upward path in June (1.6%), July and August (both 1.9%), and September (2.1%), which could have been maintained in October, according to estimates by private analysts.
Thus, the indicator that the Statistics Authority will reveal on Wednesday, November 12, means a continued return to numbers exceeding 2%, as happened last month, and it is expected to continue until the end of the year at least.
The Market Expectations Survey (REM), prepared by the Central Bank based on special estimates, expected inflation in the tenth month of 2025 to reach 2.2%, and annual inflation is expected to close in 2025 at 29.6%.
As progress, the inflation rate in Buenos Aires last month reached 2.2%, the same number as in September. The price variation in the Buenos Aires region during the year 2025 reaches 25.3%, while it increased in one year to 33.6%.
The Equilbra report indicated that monthly inflation rose last month to 2.1%, recording the main increases in alcoholic beverages and tobacco (2.9%), transportation (2.8%), and various goods and services (2.5%). The interannual variation was estimated at 31%.
For its part, EcoGo Consultores estimated that inflation last month reached 2.4%, with the average variation in food and beverages rising to 3%, stressing that “Electoral uncertainty had little impact on prices, with a relatively moderate pass.”
Regarding the dynamics of food prices, he pointed out that they exceeded 0.1 percentage points compared to what was recorded in September, pointing out that “During the first four weeks of the month, with the exchange rate rising and in anticipation of the elections, recorded food inflation recorded a weekly increase ranging between 0.5% and 0.9%.” And highlight that “After the ruling party’s victory, the dynamics moderated and last week recorded an increase of 0.2%.”
Libertad y Progreso estimated that inflation closed at 2.4% in October. Thus, the cumulative inflation rate so far this year has reached 24.9%, while the year-on-year variation has reached 31.4%, continuing to slow.
From Libertad y Progreso they made it clear “The month showed a relatively even trajectory, with a slight acceleration towards the end, but without sudden jumps.” They emphasized that “The food and beverage category witnessed remarkable growth, as it moderated in the third week, then accelerated again in the fourth week of the month.”
A retail price survey conducted by consulting firm C&T for the Greater Buenos Aires region saw a monthly increase of 2% last month, showing that “Miscellaneous goods and services were the item that saw the largest decline (4.5%), driven by a combination of increases in cigarettes, toiletries and cosmetics.”
In this context, they highlighted that price variation over a twelve-month period decreased slightly from 30.3% in September to 29.3% last month.
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