With standardized biofuels, including bioelectricity, and advances in electrification, Brazil has the conditions to accelerate the decarbonization of the transportation sector over the next two decades. This conclusion comes within an unprecedented study that analyzes energy transition scenarios and public policies capable of reducing emissions and enhancing competitiveness.
due “Initiatives and structural challenges to promote low-carbon mobility in Brazil by 2040”the survey conducted by LCA Consultores, commissioned by the MCBrasil Institute, shows that the country can become a global reference by combining a clean energy matrix, a mature biofuel chain and new electric and bioelectric propulsion technologies. According to the study, the number of electric cars is expected to grow 44 times by 2040, driven by the progress of hybrid and hybrid models, which will represent 72% of this sector.
Bet on ethanol and biomethane
The study reinforces the role of biofuels as a competitive advantage in Brazil. Demand for ethanol is expected to increase up to 2.4 times by 2040, including expanding use in sustainable aviation fuels and marine transportation. This progress will be supported by the development of the sugar and energy sector, which is betting on technological innovations and productivity gains capable of ensuring the supplies needed to keep pace with the growing demand for ethanol and advanced biofuels.
Biomethane production, in turn, could replace up to 70% of diesel consumption in heavy transport, making use of agricultural and animal waste, as well as landfills, reducing logistical costs and emerging as a competitive alternative to diesel and LNG.
Electrification leap
Electrification is progressing in the country and should change the profile of the Brazilian fleet over the next two decades. For light-duty vehicles, the study forecasts an average annual growth of 26% until 2040, driven by the promotion of hybrids, plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles. Even as flex-fuel engines, which use ethanol, continue to serve as the basis for the transition, the volume of electric vehicles is expected to grow 44 times over this period.
This development will require huge investments in infrastructure. The study estimates that Brazil will need about 807,000 new public charging stations between 2025 and 2040, representing an opportunity worth R$25 billion for the electricity and mobility sector.
For José Eduardo Luzi, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the MBCBrasil Institute, the study shows that the country’s competitive advantages are accessible, and therefore a sustained effort is needed from the public and private sectors, as well as civil society. “Brazil has ideal conditions to lead low-carbon mobility, but this will only become a reality through coordination between public policies and industry, energy and environmental agendas. This integration is essential to transform technical potential into competitiveness and tangible decarbonization outcomes,” he stated.
The launch of the study, held in São Paulo on November 4, brought together leaders from the public and private sectors to discuss how to transform technical evidence into long-term policies. The meeting stressed that the energy and infrastructure policy decisions taken this decade will be crucial for the pace of transformation and Brazil’s role in the global green economy.
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