The absence of the United States federal government from the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30), the 30th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), was not surprising regarding the Brazilian presidency of the convention. The expressions of the highest authorities in the Brazilian presidency and the Brazilian negotiating delegation are comforting. After all, the presence of the United States of America under the leadership of Donald Trump at the United Nations Climate Change Conference would have meant a major headache, official sources admitted.
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The presence of Democratic governors and mayors, with a focus on governors such as Gavin Newsom, from California, and Lujan Grisham, from New Mexico, excited the Brazilian delegation. Although subnational authorities cannot participate in the negotiations, the fact that more than 100 American mayors and governors traveled to Belem was interpreted by the Brazilian delegation as a strong response to Trump’s denial.
This was the ideal solution for Brazil: negotiations did not involve the challenge of facing a boycott by the US federal government, and they had the explicit support of a wide range of US local authorities. Trump’s move did not have any negative repercussions. On the contrary, it was exploited very well by his democratic opponents, and by Brazil. In São Paulo and Belém, the California governor never imagined he would be so famous in the media.
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Official sources confirmed that although Argentine President Javier Miley did not attend the Belem leaders’ summit, his government sent a small delegation to the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30). Unlike the USA, Argentina has not abandoned the Paris Agreement, something Miley threatened to do, but it never did. When it comes to multilateralism, the Argentine president does not go as far as his US idol. Argentina withdrew from the World Health Organization this year, but in the case of the Paris Agreement, the situation is more delicate.
For example, following Trump’s lead could jeopardize the Mercosur-EU free trade agreement, which the Brazilian government and its partners in the bloc hope to sign at the Presidents’ Summit to be held in Rio on December 20. Miley is threatening to not participate in the event, but she hasn’t dropped the hammer yet. For the European Union, the climate issue is a fundamental necessity.
- The impasse in Belem: Adaptation targets remain pending on the official agenda, creating a new hurdle at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP30).
In Belém, a source involved in the negotiations commented that the Argentines are “a bit annoying. Since they are few in number, they are not able to participate in everything and want to review matters that have already been negotiated.” But there is still no sister COP province in the Amazon region. Brazilians are on alert because they know Miley is capable of surprising.
The Venezuelans, who, yes, participated in the leaders’ summit, where they were represented by Foreign Minister Ivan Gil, are “quiet,” in the words of a negotiating source. Venezuela is part of the group of like-minded developing countries, known as Like-minded developing countries. It is an alliance organized to work together in negotiations, and it has strong influence, as it represents more than 50% of the world’s population. The group includes countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, such as China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Iran, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, and others.
The scenario is not bad for the Brazilian presidency, but even without Trump, getting big announcements at the UN Climate Change Conference will not be easy.