Judging by the deluge of press releases in the inbox, posts on social networks and reports on TV, radio and newspapers, the climate crisis in Belém will be resolved by Friday. Just no.
Things are so slow, in this 33-year-long process, that the best news from the first week of negotiations was that the diplomats were quickly able to reach agreement on the agenda. That’s right: they immediately agreed on what to discuss. It has nothing to do with student gatherings.
Another progress was Marina Silva’s implementation of the “roadmap” concept for phasing out fossil fuels. Look now: Luiz Inacio ‘Tropical Margin’ Lula da Silva himself mentioned three times, at the leaders’ meeting that preceded COP30, the need to end dependence on fossils.
Not to mention the rope in the house of a hanged man, it is best not to remember that “moving beyond” oil, coal and gas, the burning of which is the largest source of greenhouse gases, is two years old news. The goal was adopted at COP 28 in Dubai, but disappeared in the corridors of COP 29 in Baku (Azerbaijan).
It’s true that there has been a 50% reduction in deforestation in the Amazon in three years (even logging in the Cerrado has declined, which is another good news). Lola and Marina points. But there is no guarantee that the Amazon will not collapse and become a net exporter of carbon (CO).2), instead of acting as a sink that compensates for part of the global warming phenomenon.
The United States, the largest climate polluter in history, left the Paris Agreement (2015), put its foot on the fossil fuel accelerator and curbed clean energy, with Donald Trump, and did not even send an official delegation to Belém. From China, the largest emitter of carbon emissions at present, only one vice premier has come.
In 2025 global carbon dioxide emissions2 It is expected to rise again, by about 1.1%, as announced during COP30. It is estimated that it will end the year on track to become the second hottest year since the industrial revolution, at 38.1 billion tons of carbon dioxide.2 (GtCO2).
There are those who see reason to celebrate the slowing pace of growth. Other optimists believe that fossil fuel consumption may have already peaked and begun to decline (if AI’s enormous appetite for electricity, which is growing at 12% annually, does not turn such predictions into vain).
The 198 signatories to the UN Convention on Climate Change, adopted in Rio in 1992 (in 1992!), agreed in Paris a decade ago to stop global warming to no more than 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels, preferably 1.5 degrees Celsius. At least 1.1°C has already disappeared, and even with the commitments made by the parties – if they are met, look – that would lead to a catastrophic rise of 2.6 or 2.8°C.
To stay at 1.5°C, a constant amount of carbon dioxide must be used2 Studies of other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the so-called global carbon budget, could still be launched. It is estimated that the balance available for spending in the Goodwill Account is 170 billion tons of carbon dioxide.2.
The calculation is simple: 170 / 38 = 4.5. There are less than five years left, at the current rate, to eliminate the fossils. The map of the path we have taken during 33 years indicates that we are on the brink of the abyss.
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