The Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR) revised its wheat production forecast upwards, ranging from 23 to 24.5 million tonsA new historical record for the crop. The increase of 1.5 million tons between October and November far exceeds the initial forecast for July, when it was hoped it would reach 20 million tons, and the entity’s report details that the average national yield will also be a record high, at 37.7 quintals per hectare, on a cultivated area of 6.9 million hectares.
The GEA-BCR team, based on its first satellite surveys, recorded positive corrections in the area under cultivation, although it continues to deduct more than 400,000 hectares lost due to excess water. “If the 2021/22 campaign, with 23 million tons, is a super wheat campaign, then the current campaign will be a mega campaign,” the report said. In comparative terms, current production will exceed the previous record by 6.5%, with average production higher by 2.7 q/ha.
With harvest progress at 15%, historical productivity in the three main wheat governorates is evident. In Buenos Aires, the average could reach 40.8 F/ha, exceeding 39.5 in the 2021/22 season. In Córdoba, the yield will reach 36.8 FF/ha, and in Santa Fe, it will reach 42.2 FF/ha, surpassing the previous record of 40.6 FF/ha set in 2010/11.
In other areas, impressive results have also been observed. In the Chaco, productivity ranges between 27 and 28 FK/ha, while in Santiago del Estero it ranges between 23 and 24 FK/ha, with strong north-south contrasts. In the northern Pampas, the first plots harvested at Sacanta (Córdoba) produced between 60 and 65 F/ha, with peaks approaching 80 F/ha in the best plots. In Entre Ríos, primary production of 50 to 60 qf/ha has been recorded, and in central Santa Fe, 35 to 40 qf/ha.
The BCR report attributes these exceptional results to a combination of climatic and technological factors. Added to optimal moisture conditions in autumn sowing Heavy rain in July and August, along with excellent grain-filling conditions in the springWith low temperature and high solar radiation.
Although the extreme cold of 28 October raised concerns, damage was localized and low-incidence, limited to areas such as Pige, Daríguera and sectors of La Pampa. In parallel, investment in technology was crucial: the use of high-quality seeds, health monitoring, and fertilization emerged, as well as fertilization operations that helped offset losses caused by leaching in a year of heavy rains.
As the harvest progresses and late soybean and corn planting tasks overlap, excess water and poor rural roads are raising concerns among producers. Rainfall on 11 and 12 November totaled between 10 and 30 mm in Buenos Aires, 42 mm in Chauvet (Santa Fe) and up to 30 mm in La Pampa, complicating entry into the areas.
The report warns against this It will be important to have a chance for good weather over the next 15 to 20 days To complete the wheat threshing. Although the forecast shows a trend toward less frequent and more dispersed rain, the abundant moisture accumulating in central Buenos Aires, southern Brazil and northeastern Argentina could encourage more severe storms entering December.
With these numbers, the 2025/26 wheat campaign is consolidated as a milestone for Argentine agricultural production, demonstrating the potential of the grain as a driver of foreign exchange and technological investment in the countryside.
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