The Focus forecast update is the main event in the local market this Monday, following the COBOOM meeting last week.
Abroad, the auction of US Treasury bonds (Treasury bonds) and the statements of Alberto Muslim from the Federal Reserve (the US central bank) should be followed.
Watch highlights from Monday’s agenda:
FGV is releasing the IPC-S for the first four weeks of November – At 8 a.m., the Brazilian Institute of Economics of the Fundação Getulio Vargas (Ibre-FGV) releases the Consumer Price Index – Weekly (IPC-S) for the first four weeks of November. The IPC-S for the fourth four weeks of October 2025 is up 0.14% and has accumulated a 3.60% increase in the past 12 months.
BC issues this week’s Focus Bulletin – At 8:25 am, the Central Bank issues the concentration bulletin for the week ending November 7. Market economists’ average forecast for Brazilian official inflation in 2025 rose from 4.56% to 4.55%. For 2026, the median forecast for the broad national Consumer Price Index (IPCA) remains at an increase of 4.20%; In 2027, it decreased from 3.82% to an increase of 3.80%, and in 2028, it decreased from 3.54% to an increase of 3.50%. For the base interest rate (Celic), the median estimate remained at 15% at the end of 2025, for the 19th week in a row; It remained at 12.25% at the end of 2026 for the sixth week in a row, and remained at 10.50% in 2027 for the thirty-eighth week.
Secex presents the trade balance for the first week of November – The Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex) of the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services will present, at three in the afternoon, the result of the trade balance for the first week of November. Brazil’s trade balance registered a surplus of US$6.964 billion in October. The result was 70.2% higher than that recorded in the same period of the previous year. Exports totaled US$31.97 billion in the month, an increase of 9.1%, and imports were US$25.01 billion, a decrease of 0.8%. During the year to date, exports totaled US$289.731 billion, an increase of 1.9% compared to the same period of the previous year, and imports reached US$237.336 billion, an increase of 7.1%. Trade flows, i.e. the sum of exports and imports, amounted to US$527.067 billion, an increase of 4.2%.
Fed Leader Speaks – At 11:45 AM (Brasilia time), St. Louis District President Alberto Muslim is scheduled to be interviewed on Bloomberg TV. The director has the right to vote in monetary policy meetings this year.
The US Treasury holds an auction of 3-year Treasury notes The US Treasury holds an auction of 3-year Treasury securities. At three o’clock in the afternoon (Brasilia time), the results will appear.
Lula participates in the opening of the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30). – President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva participates in the opening of the COP30 conference, in Belém (Palestinian Authority).
INSS CPMI listens to the leader of the association – At 4 p.m., the Joint Parliamentary Inquiry Committee of the INSS will hold a hearing with Igor Dias Delicrud, Director of the Association for Social Support for Pensioners and Pensioners (AASAP).
6 x 1 day Chamber Committee Discussions The subcommittee on the 6 x 1 chamber measure will hold a discussion on the topic at 2 p.m. The President of the Chamber, Representative Hugo Motta, was invited; Minister of Labor and Employment, Luiz Marinho; Minister of Development, Industry, Trade and Services, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin, and representatives of trade unions.
A blacksmith working in São Paulo – Finance Minister Fernando Haddad leaves São Paulo on Monday.
Gallipolo participates in the meetings of the Bank for International Settlements in Basel – The President of the Central Bank (BC), Gabriele Galipolo, will participate in meetings promoted by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). Gallipolo will be in Basel, Switzerland, to fulfill these commitments.
BC Director participates in the Bank for International Settlements meeting in Basel – The Director of International Affairs and Corporate Risk Management at the Central Bank, Paolo Piccetti, will participate in meetings promoted by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), in Basel (Switzerland). Inspection Director, Ailton de Aquino Santos, met with Santander advisor and consultant Renato Martins Oliva, at 3 p.m. Regulatory Director, Gilneo Vivan, will hold a meeting with representatives of the Ministry of Entrepreneurship, Small Enterprises and Small Businesses, at 3:30 p.m. Other managers are expected to have internal orders.
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