Today’s agenda: Public accounts and unemployment data Highlights | finance

BC sends October fiscal policy note – At 8:30 a.m., the Central Bank issues the fiscal policy press release for October, with the preliminary outcome for the consolidated public sector, which includes the central, state and municipal governments and state-owned enterprises (excluding banks, Petrobras and Eletrobras). The consolidated public sector recorded a primary deficit of R$17.5 billion in September, a significant increase compared to the deficit of R$7.3 billion in the same month of 2024. This result was driven by deficits of the central government (R$14.9 billion) and regional governments (R$3.5 billion), partially offset by a surplus of R$1.0 billion by state-owned enterprises. In the twelve months, the primary deficit in the public sector amounted to R$33.2 billion, equivalent to 0.27% of GDP.

IBGE publishes monthly Pnad Contínua for October – The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) publishes at 9 am the ongoing National Household Sample Survey (Pnad), with unemployment data for October. The average of 23 forecasts compiled by VALOR DATA suggests the unemployment rate will fall to 5.5%. In the quarters ending in August and September, unemployment remained at 5.6%, already the lowest in the historical series that began in 2012. In the three months ending in October 2024, unemployment in turn was 6.2%. Estimates range between 5.5% and 5.7%. The median forecast for the average unemployment rate in 2025 remained at 6.0%, the same level it was in September. In this case, estimates range between 5.9% and 6.1%.

IBGE publishes mortality table for 2024 — The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) publishes, at 10 a.m., the complete death tables for Brazil 2024.

CNI announces business confidence by sector for November – The Confederation National de la Industrie (CNI) announces at 10 am the Index of Industrial Business Confidence (Icei) – sector results – for November. The Icei rose in 21 and fell in eight sectors in October. The index grew among all company sizes and in three of the country’s five regions. Although the ISI rose in 21 sectors, only five sectors crossed the 50-point line, indicating a state of confidence. The other 24 industrial sectors were below the 50-point mark, indicating pessimism.

FGV announces the Economic Uncertainty Index for November – The Brazilian Institute of Economics of Fundação Getulio Vargas (Ibre-FGV) announces, at 10:15 am, the Index of Uncertainty in the Brazilian Economy (IIE-Br) for November. The index rose 2.5 points in October to 109.0 points. In the measure of quarterly moving averages, the index decreased by 1.4 points, to 108.7 points. The informational component of the IIE-Br rose by 3.6 points in October to 111.1 points, contributing positively 3.1 points to the overall score. The expectations component, which measures the dispersion of experts’ expectations for macroeconomic variables, decreased by 3.3 points to 96.6 points and contributes negatively by 0.6 points to the decline in the IIE-Br index.

US markets close early due to the holiday – US markets close early due to the Thanksgiving holiday. The New York Stock Exchanges close at 3 p.m., and the Treasury market closes at 4 p.m.

Germany provides a preview of the November CPI – Germany will present, at 10 am (Brasilia time), preliminary data on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November. The previous reading indicated an increase of 0.3% in margin and an increase of 2.3% on an annual basis. Estimates indicate a decrease of 0.2% (margin) and an increase of 2.3% (annual).

Lula sends with the ministers – President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva meets with the ministers at Palacio do Planalto: at 9 am with Sidonio Palmeira (Secretariat of Social Communications); At 3pm with Esther Dweck (Management and Innovation in Public Services) and at 4pm with Camilo Santana (Education).

An unannounced mourning schedule – Finance Minister Fernando Haddad’s agenda has not been revealed.

Gallipolo receives Abrasca executives – The President of the Central Bank (BC), Gabriel Galipolo, will meet at 10 am with the CEO of the Brazilian Association of Public Companies (Abrasca), Pablo Cesario. In addition to Cesario, Executive Director of Government Relations Felipe Cabral; Director of Government Relations, Camila Meirelles; Technical Advisor Miguel Lana and Capital Markets Director Lucy Pamboukdjian are also participating.

BC Director holds a press conference about BaaS – Directors of the Central Bank of Regulation, Gilneo Vivan, and Director of Inspection, Elton de Aquino, participate in the regular meeting of the deliberative council of the Central Bank of the Private Retirement Institution (Centros) at 9 am. Then, at 11:30 am, Vivan will also hold a press conference on Banking-as-a-Service (BaaS) regulation, rules for naming supervised institutions and credit portability in open finance. In São Paulo, Monetary Policy Director, Nilton David, met with representatives of Asset 1 Investimentos, and the heads of management, Luiz Cesario and Marcelo Senicalchi; Variable Income Manager Pedro Carneiro and Fixed Income Manager Carlos Melo. The meeting will be at 10 am. At 11am, David met with BEE4 Chairman, Rodrigo Lopez, and CEO, Patricia Steele Fonseca. At 2:30 p.m., the manager holds a meeting with investors organized by Genial Investimentos. Director of International Affairs and Corporate Risk Management, Paolo Piccetti, met with Kazuki Hara, Head of Sovereign Risk and International Issuances at R&I. Brazil’s Lead Valuation Analyst, Shoichi Maruyama, is also participating. The appointment will be 8 a.m. Later, at 2:30 p.m., Piketty will speak at the Economic Journalism course at the Estadão. Other managers are expected to have internal orders.