Economists Famous people who hit the market, such as Miguel Ángel Broda and Carlos Melkonyan, coincided in the final hours of the year. Measuring economic news like ““A historic opportunity.”
They also agreed, each one from his position and words, on thatThe government is in danger of destroying it If you maintain a position of not buying reserves in the market and not review this position soon.
International investors seem to agree: yes Louis Caputo You don’t get dollars quickly The country risk index will rise again. It is possible that pressures on the exchange rate will return.
“We have reached a creeping peg at 1% again when inflation is higher“, confirms the economist Gabriel Camano. Like many of his colleagues, Caamaño believes that the government’s ratification of the exchange rate regime after the electoral victory was a mistake.
This is where the central issue today appears; A dividing line between the market and the government team.
Does $5 billion come from foreign banks?
he Wall Street Journal I was surprised just before the long weekend with the information that a club of American banks had “put off” the idea of financing the government through… 20,000 million US dollarsas Scott Besent suggested during the exchange rate run ahead of the October elections.
This mention was interpreted negatively by the market: Debt securities fell and country risks rose significantly above 600 points.
However, during yesterday’s holiday, some foreign banks, in Wall Street (Bradescu and Morgan Stanley) They opened the opportunity for funding for the Argentine government to reach the required level 5000 million US dollars.
The amount of it It would be enough for Caputo to push the January maturity date, without forcing a new reduction in the size of reserves net central bank.
“Negotiations have been geared towards facilitating smaller, short-term buybacks. 5000 million US dollars“This reflects a lack of confidence in Argentina’s liquidity and political framework,” Bradesco analysts wrote in their report on Monday.
“We believe that the swap credit line with the United States is sufficient to cover Argentina’s obligations in the next 12 months, although access to credit with banks, amounting to US$5 billion, helps keep the country’s risks in the refinancing zone,” Bradesco concluded.
The Dilemma of Buying Reserves: The Final Choice by Louis Caputo
Since the end of the elections, the economic team has been careful not to rule out any possibility. on the contrary: There were statements in favor of purchasing reserves. However, caution has been exercised about the best time to do this.
The Kabuto sequence will start in a different path; Not to “indulge” financiers. Not even City economists, although the vast majority agree with the direction of the ruling party’s actions.
However, the idea goes elsewhere.
First – and here comes the opportunity for $5,000 million in new credit – to do so Provide certainty of collection to investors.
Second, the political signal: The coming weeks will be crucial for approving the 2026 budget. For the government, issuing a law for the first time in three years will serve as a strong signal to the market.
And also for internal politics: so after the XXL holiday Negotiations with the governors will intensify.
Funds are putting pressure on: Wall Street’s warning
he PIMCO Fundone of the giants when it comes to talking about international investment funds, puts the topic of the future exchange market at the forefront of current analysis.
After listening to Javier Miley in defense of exchange teams Just as they are now, Pramol Dhawanhead of emerging markets portfolio management at PIMCO, has come to the crossroads of this definition.
Dhawan noted that the government should take advantage of the overwhelming electoral victory and historical support for Donald Trump’s government to eliminate the gang system. Let your coin float. “I advise you to do it when times are good, if you want to break the cycle of boom and bust“, recommended the investor.
Purchase dollars to pay off debt, the city claims
claim Wall Street and the city of Buenos Aires to Let Miley Caputo rush out to buy dollars On the market it has a very concrete basis: the following obligations to pay debts to investors.
to 2026external interests are calculated for approx 9000 million US dollars. This means, 800 million dollars per month. or Between US$30 million and US$40 million per day.
So far in 2025, the Treasury has not purchased dollars at net value and interest on the debt has been paid It was decided to disburse the IMF in April.
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