Conditions that, if met, would lead to Tarcisio de Freitas (Republicans), Governor of São Paulo, running for President of the Republic next year:
1. Bolsonaro’s unequivocal support leaves no room for doubt;
2. Equally unequivocal support from Bolsonaro’s four sons (Flavio, senator; Carlos, advisor in Rio; Eduardo, Donald Trump’s tariff ambassador; and Jair Renan, advisor in Camborió) and former First Lady Michelle;
3. Support the current ambitious right-wing candidates: Ronaldo Caedo (União – Brazil), Governor of Goiás State; Romeo Zema (new), Governor of Minas Gerais; Ratinho Junior (PSD), Governor of Paraná, and Eduardo Leite (PSD), Governor of Rio Grande do Sul;
4. A blow to the economy or anything else major significantly reduces Lula’s real chances of being re-elected. The corruption scandal, for example. Who knows, the prisoners revolt as the death toll rises.
Support for Bolsonaro and his family must be announced by January or February, so that Tarcisio has enough time to talk about his succession. As a presidential candidate, he will have to resign as governor by the first few days of April.
For now, under the guidance of his political advisors, Tarcisio will continue to deny his aspirations to succeed Lula, but he will smile whenever he hears it mentioned in public.
This does not mean that he will get rid of what he fears most: that Bolsonaro, or one of his sons, who is a candidate, in the middle of the election campaign, makes any statement that calls into question the family’s support for him.
Eduardo and Carlos do not fully trust Tarcicio, and rightly say that he does not have the votes to be elected president, which the Bolsonaro family does.
So, even if they lose, the least bad thing is for one of them, maybe Flavio, to run for president.
All columns from Noblat’s blog at Metropoles
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