The second two weeks should be cooler and wetter, with extratropical cyclones in the southern region
the Cold weather and rainy It should continue into the second half of November in most parts of Brazil. Due to the influence of factors such as No Nina (The temperature of surface waters in the Pacific Ocean decreases, which changes the climate around the world) and the formation of extratropical cyclones, and temperatures are not expected to rise as expected shortly before the arrival of summer.
Temperatures have returned to rise in recent days in most parts of the country Southern regions and Southeastbut they should drop again soon. In the south, forecasts indicate the formation of an extra-tropical cyclone next Sunday, the 16th, with heavy rains and severe weather between… Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina.
Marcelo Cellucci, operations and modeling coordinator at the National Center for Natural Disaster Monitoring and Warning (CEMADEN), highlights the difficulty of achieving predictability for certain meteorological systems beyond two weeks.
“Meteorological models may indicate that three systems will form (during the remainder of the month), but the reality may be very different from expectations, precisely because they are unreliable,” he points out.
Cellucci highlights that every cold front in Brazil is essentially associated with an extratropical cyclone somewhere, usually over Atlantic OceanAnd it often happens quickly. “Hurricanes are not rare, quite the opposite,” he says.
in Sao PauloForecasts indicate the presence of a weak cold front Temperatures drop between Thursday and Fridaywith maximum temperatures ranging from 30°C to 22°C. Rain is expected during the rest of the month, according to the Tempo Oak Meteorological Service.
“In the second two weeks, the most common La Niña weather patterns regulate precipitation northward, intensifying the occurrence of moisture channels between the Midwest, Minas Gerais and southern Bahia,” said Tempo Oki meteorologist Lucas Carvalho.
Another effect of the La Niña phenomenon is increased rainfall and cloudiness in the region Northeast The latter half of the month with less hot temperatures.
Extreme weather events such as hurricanes The city of Rio Bonito do Iguaçu was destroyedin ParanaIt may happen again, but it is difficult to predict in advance. “Meteorological phenomena of large intensity and magnitude are very complex. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct careful studies to improve forecasting tools, with the aim of anticipating and mitigating social and economic damage,” Carvalho concludes.
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