The dollar price is now showing UptrendAlthough it will be temporary. Yesterday, the official exchange rate rose for the fourth day in a row, accumulating an increase of 4.4% In just one week. with $1,447.5 Those reached in the wholesale sector, closed the distance with the ceiling of the float range (4.2%). However, operators estimate that the pressure will soon ease and stabilize again.
There was also upward pressure Dollar futures– All contracts recorded daily price increases ranging between 1% and 1.4%. The largest increases were recorded in closing positions for this month, which remained at $1,449 (slightly above the official wholesale exchange rate), and in July of the following year, which amounted to approx $1700.
The movement of the official exchange rate dragged the entire market. In the stock market, prices rose Electrical and mechanical engineering It was calculated with the settlement (CCLBy 1.4% and 0.8%, respectively. The daily advance was less than that of the wholesale official (1.6%), but it made the CCL price remain above a comfortable level. $1500 The European Parliament approached this line again when negotiating $1480.
The maneuver that increased pressure on the dollar
According to the Portfolio Personal Inversiones research team, one market maneuver has contributed to pressure on the official exchange rate: exchange rate fixing. “D28N5”. It is a linked dollar bill that expires in the next few days, and the rate that will be used as a reference for payment was set yesterday. This encourages investors to demand foreign currency and thus force an increase in the exchange rate to improve payment when the instrument matures.
“The dollar’s rise on Tuesday was almost 100% due to the expiration of the associated dollar address ‘D28N5’. As happened with ‘D31O5’, this Tuesday was the day the address set its price.” That is, the official dollar closing (A3500) this Tuesday is the final price for this error. In this way, several market players implementing various types of artificial arbitrage close positions by purchasing official dollars.” Ariel SpedarCEO of Cocos Capital.
“The government was providing a lot of hedging (and the government was doing very well) with respect to these assets, so the market came out on Tuesday to close or roll over positions, and this, one way or another, is… Demand for dollars“, which largely explains the price rebound.
Counselor 1816 It expected a greater movement in the volume of the dollar futures market and, to a lesser extent, in the official market, given that “A3500 (the average official exchange rate of the day) on Tuesday will be applicable to the domestic debt tender on Wednesday and also to determine the payment of the linked dollar bill ‘D28N5’”, which will expire at the end of the week.
This same market maneuver happened about a month ago, after the legislative elections. Although investors celebrated the overwhelming victory for… Javier MileyAs it stands now, the official exchange rate has come under significant upward pressure due to the closing of positions in another linked dollar note (“D31O5”) and the technical effect that “forces” demand for foreign currencies in the official market to have a higher exchange rate as a reference when title matures.
Will the dollar calm down again?
According to Sabdar, “We are expected to see a calmer dollar in the coming days.” The estimate is based on what happened about a month ago, when investors carried out this same operation before collecting the address “D31O5”, which also followed the official price of the dollar, whose technical influence quickly disappeared, and in the following rounds calm returned to the exchange market.
Change agent Gustavo Quintana He warns that in the coming days the usual demand for foreign currencies could be activated due to the closing of positions that always occurs before the end of each month, but he estimates that after that “the exchange rate could calm down and even stabilize a little lower” from current levels.
The financial analyst agrees with this opinion, saying: “More demand for the dollar has appeared in the official market. However, after this recovery, I believe that the exchange rate should soon return to calm and continue to be relatively stable, despite being close to the ceiling of the floating range.” Gustavo Bear.
Bear stresses that once this temporary effect ends, the official rate of the dollar should return to the calm it has shown in recent weeks. However, it highlights that the dynamics may be influenced by linked news Government strategy Payment of the next maturity of debts in foreign currency and accumulation of reserves with the treasury or the central bank.
There is another factor that indicates calmness in exchange rates in the coming weeks: Seasonal increase in demand for the peso Which usually occurs in the last month of the year. Moreover, the market expects retail supply to continue after the intense dollarization that preceded the elections, compounded by the eventual liquidation of foreign currency acquired by many companies through foreign currency debt issuances.
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