The official inflation estimate for December was 0.25%, a result which brings the 12-month cumulative national broad consumer price index 15 (PCAI-15) to 4.41%, within the government’s target.
This is the second consecutive month where accumulated inflation is within the tolerance margin. By November, the IPCA-15 had fallen to 4.5%, after being out of range since January. In April, its highest level since, it reached 5.49%.
The data was published this Tuesday (23) by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
The latest Focus bulletin, a Central Bank survey of financial institutions, published this Monday (12/22), estimates that official inflation will end the year 2025 at 4.33%, i.e. within the target tolerance limit.
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Overview x IPCA
The IPCA-15 has basically the same methodology as the IPCA, the so-called official inflation, which serves as the basis for the government’s inflation target policy of 3% over 12 months, with a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage points plus or minus.
The difference lies in the price collection period and geographic coverage. As a preview, the research is carried out and published even before the end of the reference month. Compared to current information, the collection period was from November 14 to December 12.
The IPCA-15 collects prices in 11 locations across the country (the metropolitan regions of Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, São Paulo, Belém, Fortaleza, Salvador and Curitiba, in addition to Brasília and Goiânia); and the IPCA, 16 sites (including Vitória, Campo Grande, Rio Branco, São Luís and Aracaju). The full December IPCA will be published on January 9.
The two indices take into account a basket of products and services intended for families whose income is between one and 40 SMIC. Currently the minimum value is R$1,518.
Read more reports like this one from Agência Brasil, partner of Metropolises.
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