The biggest burst of activity this year came from the export front – agriculture, energy, mining and knowledge-based services – which explains a large part of the product’s recovery. But there was also Sectors aimed at the domestic market that showed excellent performanceeven in an environment of tight margins and growing competition from imported goods.
One of them was this real estate market, which is experiencing its most dynamic year in the last decade. The writings exceed the values of 2017, supported by two factors: the improvement in the purchasing power of the salary measured in square meters – today 3% above the peak of 2018 – and the gradual recovery of mortgage lending, which already explains 20% of operations. However, this upturn has not yet had the same impact on the construction sector. a sector under pressure from high dollar costs and still low sales values.
The automotive industry also established itself as one of the winners in terms of domestic consumption. Patent applications will be around 615,000 units by 2025 (49% YoY), the best record since 2018. The growth is explained by a more modern and diverse range of products, the improvement in real wages compared to the price of cars and greater availability of financing. The other side is the stagnation of national production, which lost share compared to imported vehicles, the main growth drivers.
On the same lineThe motorcycle market will grow for the fourth year in a row with 634,000 units solds (30.4%).
Household appliances also showed dynamism, albeit at a slow pace a temporary break in the third quarter due to the volatility of tariffs and the lower offer of installment plans. Nevertheless, sales would end the year with an increase of 19%accompanied by a 24% increase in local production compared to the previous year, maintaining an important role in the market.
A common pattern emerges in all of these sectors: the arrival of new players and the greater presence of imported products They expanded and modernized supply, lowered relative prices, and maintained demand. But they also increased competitive pressure on local production, which faces the challenge of accelerating investment, innovation and productivity increases in order not to lose ground in a more open and demanding market.
By 2026, Heterogeneity will continue to be a structural feature of the economy. The export-oriented sectors will once again drive growth, while the remaining sectors of the economy will progress at a more moderate pace. The sectoral transition process is not yet complete, although it could be moderated by the reform agenda – tax and labor – the impact of which will occur gradually: limited in 2026 and more visible in the medium term.
We expect a new historical record in terms of consumption. Private consumption would grow by almost 4% next year, driven by the recomposition of real wages and the greater availability of credit. The industry will follow suit with forecast growth of around 3%. Nevertheless, the discrepancy between demand and industry will remain: production levels will remain about 4% below 2023reflecting competitive pressure from imports and the slow recovery of some manufacturing sectors.
We assume it is under construction A turning point begins in the second half of the year with estimated annual growth of 10.5%. One of the drivers will be the residential segment, boosted by a lower inventory of homes for sale and a gradual improvement in the profitability of developments.
On the other hand, the new public works program will promote outsourced works to provinces, infrastructure projects linked to exports – especially in dynamic sectors with private financing – and public-private concessions on national routes.
At the same time, private non-residential construction will experience a more selective upswing. focuses on sectors with strong structural demand: Retail, e-commerce logistics, data centers, renewable energy and tourism.
At ABECEB we forecast GDP growth of around 4.5% by 2026. This figure reflects an economy that is pushing forward with gradual structural reforms to improve productivity, with greater investment focused on export sectors and access to international finance becoming more fluid. Under these conditions, the country could maintain a stronger and more sustainable expansion cycle and have two years of growth ahead – very good news
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