The new round of discussions published on Saturday on the 2026 presidential succession exposes the fragmentation of the right and the challenge of the Bolsonaro family to reorganize its political space after the ineligibility of the former president. In the survey, only 8% of voters believe that Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) would be the ideal name to receive his father’s inauguration – a proportion much lower than that of Michelle Bolsonaro, cited by 22%, and that of the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), chosen by 20% of those questioned. The figures were collected before Flávio’s announcement on Friday (5) of his candidacy for president.
- Datafoliha: Lula’s approval stands at 32% and disapproval remains at 37%
The table indicates stability compared to previous research. In July, Michelle had 23% mentions and now appears with 22%, a difference that is within the margin of error. Tarcísio fluctuated between 21% and 20%. Ratinho Jr. (PSD-PR) rose from 10% to 12%, while Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL-SP), who lives abroad, fell from 11% to 9%. Flávio, on the other hand, varied between 9 and 8%. Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil-GO), with 6%, and Romeu Zema (Novo-MG), who fell from 5% to 4%, were also close to the previous indices.
The investigation confirms that Bolsonaro’s seal has lost its strength as an electoral asset. According to Datafolha, 50% of voters say they would never vote for a candidate nominated by the former president. 26% say they would definitely support a name he nominated, and 21% are considering the possibility. The majority rejection helps to explain the difficulty of building an internal consensus on the right, while the left camp continues to focus on the figure of President Lula (PT).
The spontaneous survey also highlights Bolsonaro’s residual weight in the political imagination: although he is ineligible until 2060 due to a sentence of 27 years and 3 months in the process of the attempted coup, he appears with 7% of the presidential nominations, behind only Lula, who comes first with 24%. Tarcísio (2%) and Ratinho Jr. (1%) complete the best-known group.
Among voters identified by the institute as the hard core of Bolsonarism – a predominantly male, white, more evangelical and middle-to-high income profile – Michelle is even stronger: 35% name her as her natural successor, while 30% prefer Tarcísio. Eduardo Bolsonaro owns 14% and Flávio only 9%, even after his public decision to take over the leadership of his father’s political group.
The Datafolha survey interviewed 2,002 people, face-to-face, carried out between December 2 and 4, in 147 municipalities across the country. The survey has a margin of error of two percentage points, plus or minus, and a 95% confidence level, meaning that if repeated multiple times, the estimates would tend to be repeated 95% of the times within the expected variation.
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