At its last meeting, the Fed reiterated its accommodative bias by cutting the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points and confirming the end of the quantitative adjustment (QT) program.
Both announcements were completely ignored, but their significance lies in the underlying message: the central bank is explicitly committed to a low interest rate framework and an operating cap at both ends of the curve. For equities, this combination once again guarantees a solid floor and for global carry traders, another period of safe performance with limited volatility.
With interest rates and inflation remaining relatively subdued, the market is again finding room to accelerate the temporarily paused FOMO.
The stability of the yield curve, In both the short and long sections it remains one of the most important factors of the year: in the absence of unexpected shocks in the US macro, global capital flows reinforce the preference for risk positions. At this point it becomes clear that the interest rate architecture continues to act as an anchor that orders all portfolio decisions.
In the universe of Wererecent movements begin to outline another relevant trend. Oil prices are again around $60 without the geopolitical body predicting any relevant shocks in the coming weeks. The energy sector, which has always been sensitive to international tensions, is currently experiencing a period of relative stability in an environment where even supply shocks appear to have been neutralized.
But perhaps the most interesting fact is found in the agricultural complex. The soy is sustaining an upswing that some analysts are interpreting as a harbinger of a major turnaround in the Chinese economy.
Since 2024, China has implemented significant fiscal and monetary stimulus, but the impact on real economic activity has been slower than expected. Now, recent performance in some agricultural commodities suggests that recovery is getting closer and could have strategic implications for exporting countries like Argentina.
If China does succeed in resuming its expansion cycle by 2026, agricultural commodities would be the first to respond and Argentine assets would benefit the most. Both Merval and government bonds are very sensitive to signs of global reactivation related to foreign trade. It is no coincidence that several international analysts have begun to include Argentina in the group of emerging markets with the greatest relative upside potential in the global reflation scenarios for 2026.
The segment of metalsFor its part, the US dollar is trying to stabilize after a sell-off that interrupted an extended rally. Gold is once again testing levels near $4,000 with no structural reversal so far. The move in silver is similar: moderate volatility, technical adjustments and the absence of signals indicating a relevant break in medium-term momentum. This whole range of factors leads to the same conclusion: it would be unlikely that the final quarter of 2025 would not end with a clearly bullish bias.
Last week’s widespread redness is increasingly being interpreted as the final “downturn” of the year, a technical event in a market that continues to be driven by relatively stable macroeconomic fundamentals.
At the local level, the impact is direct. Argentina is entering a new phase without the political uncertainty that dominated the first semester.
He Merval responds by ushering in a new bull market and quickly adapting to the global FOMO phenomenon. However, the real structural signal comes from the debt market: government bonds are approaching single-digit yields across the curve, and expectations of further compression of nearly 300 basis points could be achievable.
Global risk appetite remains a key driver for emerging assets and in this new equilibrium, Argentina once again appears as an example where local and global factors come together.
Institutional normalization, macroeconomic stabilization and the absence of global disruptive events create a framework in which the Argentine stocks are once again positioned as a competitive alternative compared to other emerging markets. In this sense, prioritizing local action until 2026 is becoming an increasingly defensible strategy, despite the recent punishment.
However, global risk is not going away. The main issue to watch remains US inflation: an acceleration above 3% would reinvigorate internal discussions at the Fed and could alter the delicate balance currently supporting markets.
At the moment, this scenario is not the base case, but its probability is not negligible. The overall picture is now clear: the shutdown has been lifted, the Fed is maintaining its dovish stance, global capital flows are once again turning to risk assets and the reflation cycle is continuing. Against this background, Argentina is well positioned at the beginning of 2026 to take advantage of a relevant part of this new global dynamic
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