The consulting company Empiria, “The year 2026 is seen as an opportunity to consolidate the stabilization path and further develop structural reforms.”supported by the “Popular support in the midterm elections” and in “greater relative weight of the ruling party in Congress”.
The scene however “Normalizing the monetary system is not without challenges, with yellow lights on private employment and reserves.”. The consultant emphasizes that “For the first time since 2010/11” (without counting those “Post-Pandemic Anomaly 2021-22”), according to a “Heterogeneous upswing in 2025 – not linear, with a lot of carryover from the previous year and leveling off from the second quarter”, “Next year could see two years of productive expansion”.
Scenario 2025-2026: Growth, Inflation and Exchange Rate
The consulting firm led by Hernán Lacunza expects the expansion to continue: for the last quarter of 2025 “The economy is expected to grow 1.4% compared to Q3 (+1.9% YoY)”close “2025 with growth of 4.2% and a positive drag of 1.5% for 2026”.
The table summarizes the macro panorama:
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GDP (var%, average): “4.3% in 2025” and “4.8% in 2026”.
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Consumption: “6.2% in 2025” and “2.1% in 2026”This shows that the strong upswing takes place in the current year and slows down next year.
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Investment: “20% in 2025” and “3.6% in 2026”with a very strong initial jump and then more moderate growth.
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Inflation (var%, peak): “30.5% in 2025” and “18.9% in 2026”consistent with the sentence “The nominal slowdown would be prolonged, with annual inflation at around 20% (from 30% in 2025).”.
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Unemployment: “7% in 2025” and “7.2% in 2026”This reflects that the labor market continues to be a source of risk.
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External sector (% of GDP): “-2.2% in 2025” and “-1.7% in 2026”with improvement, but still deficit.
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Fiscal result: “0.2% of GDP in 2025” and “0% in 2026”attached to “Primary surplus of 1.5% (similar to 2025 but lower than the 2.2% set by the IMF)”.
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Exchange rate (var%, peak): “46% in 2025” and “26% in 2026”in accordance with a “Rising real exchange rate, but not traumatic”.
The report underlines this “The fiscal anchor, the main pillar of the program, will continue with a primary surplus of 1.5%.”without “ambitious tax reform that endangers tax resources”But “Not enough to reduce debt levels”. At the same time he warns against it “The return to voluntary debt markets will challenge financial balance, something that is precarious with unaccounted interest.”.
Regarding prices, it is estimated that “Inflation for November and December would be 2.3% and 2.1% respectively, ending the year at an average of 42% (31% on December 25th compared to December 24th).”. On the stock exchange site “The election result and the disarmament of dollar positions have created some downward pressure on the exchange rate, allowing this regime to be maintained at least until the summer.”.
The challenge of heterogeneous growth and private employment
The second major front is “Growth (although it will be heterogeneous) and create private jobs”. The report emphasizes this “Economic growth in 2026 will, as before, be heterogeneous in two dimensions: sectoral and geographical.”.
The “capital-intensive sectors (particularly non-urban), such as mining, agriculture and the financial sector (which account for 10% of registered employment)” appear as “Winner”. Instead this “Labor-intensive sectors such as construction and industry (which account for 25% of total registered employment) face a more complicated outlook.”.
The construction suffer “High costs and still embryonic financing”while the industry sample “Heterogeneity with – for example – food on the rise and textiles in decline”. From November 2023, “The loss of private workers recorded in these sectors amounted to 105,000 jobs, 75% of the total loss.”And “Agriculture, mining and financial intermediation have not created compensation”since “10,000 direct jobs were created in rural areas, but financial intermediation and mining lost the same amount.”.
The challenge is to normalize the foreign exchange market and accumulate reserves
The consulting firm led by Hernán Lacunza identifies itself as “biggest challenge” the exchange and reserve front. Point this out “Since its own net reserves were initially very negative (of the order of -$16,000 million, about $13,000 million lower than the already recalibrated targets of the program with the IMF) and then decreased, the exchange rate system appears to be exhausted and unable to rebuild reserves.”.
However, he makes this clear “In no case will there be a traumatic adjustment based on solvency on the financial front”. At the level of exchange rate policy “It does not seem to be a priority in the official will to completely abandon the holdings or even to reset the limits of the exchange rate band.”.
But he warns against it “The current system with a declining real cap (assuming it moves at 1% per month and inflation exceeds 2%) increases competitive demand with a permanent appreciation.”difficult to compensate with just “systemic reforms of competitiveness”. Therefore, he concludes that this is the case “Difficult to think about the sustainability of the current regime over the course of the year”.
However, Empiria makes this clear “There are no risks of debt defaults”given liquidity problems “It will be more cost-effective and available to redesign the exchange rate system to ration foreign currencies at a higher exchange rate.”.
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