When analyzing the markets and international trade, the fundamentals of the individual products from the various production and export countries were always taken into account. It is also important to analyze the technical aspects, and in this case they are very solid, with statistics dating back several decades, such as the database at its disposal Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).
Back to fundamentals, the international market this year has been influenced by a number of simultaneous factors, making it difficult to carry out a correct analysis of the markets and, even more difficult, to predict future price movements. The year started with tariffs USA to almost all countries in the world, which led to the distortion of the river and trade routes of the most important countries Were. The responses of various countries have adapted to the demands of the United States, affecting the flow of trade and demand for American agricultural products..
Another factor was the conflict between China and the United States, in the specific case of the soybean market. China had already decided to stop importing American soybeans in early 2025, and demand was focused on soybean exports from Brazil and, to a lesser extent, Argentina. This year Argentina increased its soybean exports to 12 million tons, with China being the main market for our bean exports.. This greater demand for soybeans from the Asian giant reduced the supply and quantity of soybeans to supply our country’s oil industry. Consequently, soybean milling was affected by the lower volume of supply in the available market, which affected the production of soybean meal and oil.
The Black Sea conflict continues and Russia is constantly attacking Ukraine. These two countries together are the world’s leading wheat exporters and, in the case of Ukraine, the fourth largest corn exporter in the world. This then creates new bases for analysis that are very difficult to predict in the short term, but Chicago has already taken note of this conflict and its effects are included in the price. However, this does not mean that Russia’s ongoing attacks will again have a negative impact on trade flows and exports from the Black Sea..
To add new fundamentals that influence the markets, in this case for Argentina, we must mention the political, economic and monetary uncertainty that the country has suffered throughout 2025: temporary changes in export retention rates at the beginning of the year; the September-spring without retentions, which caused the largest foreign exchange settlement in a month at $7.1 billion; the government’s recent move to permanently reduce withholding tax by two percentage points; and most recently, the adjustment of the exchange rate bands to inflation two months ago. All this in very short form, and certainly there were other measures that the government has taken, always with the aim of fulfilling its two election promises: reducing inflation and reducing uncertainty.
Producers have had to navigate this sea of uncertainty and beyond the government’s actions and announcements, producers continue to pursue the same strategy based on their culture: Sell as little as possible to cover your obligations and sit on unsold grainand waits for an improvement in market prices.
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