According to betting agencies, statistics and experts, who are the favorites to win the 2026 World Cup?

As runners-up at the last two European Championships and quarter-finalists at the World Cup in Qatar three years ago, there is real hope that this will be the year of the Three Lions under the leadership of their new coach Thomas Tuchel.

The bookmakers are also convinced of England’s good performance this summer and most of them see them as second favorites behind Spain.

European champions Spain were close to catching up with England with a perfect season, but a 2-2 draw against Turkey in their final qualifying game was the only blemish on their record.

Spain were deserved winners of Euro 2024 by beating England in the final and in young Barcelona winger Lamine Yamal they have one of the best players in the world.

Apart from a defeat on penalties in the Nations League final against Portugal in June, they have not lost a single competitive game since the game against Scotland in March 2023.

France, runners-up in Qatar in 2022, are also strong contenders for their last major tournament with Didier Deschamps. They remained undefeated in the European qualifying phase.

The British company Opta, which specializes in sports data, names the three European teams as favorites: Spain has a 17% chance of winning, England 11.8% and France 14.1%.

Germany, which lost its first qualifying game but won the next five to secure its place, is also highly rated by bookmakers and data experts, while Switzerland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Croatia and Norway also remained unbeaten in European qualifying.

Brazil’s qualification was less impressive, finishing fifth in the Conmebol table and losing six of 18 games. However, this hasn’t stopped many bookmakers from pegging him as the fourth favorite, despite Opta putting him at seventh place.

Reigning world champions Argentina won the South American qualifying group in a landslide, finishing nine points ahead of second-place Ecuador. Brazil is the only team to have won back-to-back World Cups in 1958 and 1962, but with Lionel Messi likely to take part, Argentina will be one of the favorites to win the title.

The standout team in the Asian qualifying rounds was Japan, who lost only one of their games heading into next summer’s tournament.

Morocco, the surprise semi-finalists in Qatar, won all eight games in the African group and could again pose a threat to the traditional big teams, while Egypt, Senegal, Ivory Coast and Tunisia also remained unbeaten.

However, with the Africa Cup of Nations starting later this month, taking part in two major tournaments in six months could be a difficult task for African nations.

Cristiano Ronaldo announced that this will be his last World Cup and therefore the Portuguese team should not be excluded, while Italy, champions of Euro 2020, have to overcome the play-offs to qualify for the World Cup, but on the big stage you can never exclude them.

Hosting the World Cup in the United States, Canada and Mexico in the middle of summer has raised concerns about the extreme heat conditions teams could face.

This summer’s Club World Cup in the United States was criticized for its harsh conditions. Chelsea midfielder Enzo Fernández said he felt “dizzy” playing in “very dangerous” heat.

Research from Queen’s University Belfast, Northern Ireland, found that temperatures in 14 of the 16 stadiums used for the 2026 World Cup could exceed potentially dangerous levels during the tournament.

It should be noted that some countries cope better with the heat; Some Europeans may struggle and England have expressed a desire to delay the start of games to avoid peak temperatures.

Conditions are likely to be favorable for South American nations and African teams, although there has never been a world champion from the latter continent.

Home games could also be an advantage for the hosts, but the spread of venues and the long distances between stadiums make it difficult to adapt to the tournament.

Ten of the eleven World Cups held in Europe have been won by European teams, but when the tournament is held in America the situation is completely different.

Each of the seven tournaments played there had a South American winner until Germany broke the streak in 2014, and since then Argentina have won in the heat of Qatar.

Spain was the first European team to win the World Cup outside the continent, in South Africa in 2010.

All eyes will be on Saturday’s announcement of where the teams will play and any marginal advantage will be welcomed.

Former striker Dion Dublin said of the England team on BBC Radio 5 Live: “I’m always worried about Croatia. I think they have a lot of experience and the quality.”

“Ghana can do incredible things. They are a strong African nation that will make it incredibly difficult. ‘Worried’ is the right word,” he said.

European football journalist Julien Laurens commented: “I know Spain lost the Nations League final to Portugal, but they have been really outstanding since Luis de la Fuente took the reins.”

“The Eurocup was fantastic. Even though England put them under pressure in the final, I think they deserved to win,” he remarked.

“We (France) trust Mbappé, but I don’t think we have many weaknesses in this team.” Looking at Germany, Laurens added: “It is currently unknown what kind of Germany we will see.”

“They can be very good and Jamal Musiala will return in January. We will see how he does for the World Cup. And when Florian Wirtz is at his best, Musiala is also at his best. With Nick Woltemade and Kai Havertz there is something really interesting in attack,” he noted.

However, he warned: “I’m not sure about the defense.”

South American football journalist Tim Vickery said: “Brazil are happy with their draw.”

“New Jersey, Boston, Philadelphia, Miami, one in Atlanta – but with air conditioning – and Carlo Ancelotti believes their games will probably be at night and I think they are very happy with that,” he explained.

“Everything is a bit rushed because Ancelotti came on at the last minute. The team has improved a lot but he is trying to bring four players up front,” he said.

“If Ancelotti can let that attacking talent shine like he did with some of his friends, it won’t be fun for anyone to face Brazil,” he said.

And of Argentina, Vickery said: “They are trying to achieve something unprecedented: outside their continent, no one has defended the world title.”

“It’s been great for Argentina since they won the World Cup. They’ve won everything,” he recalled.

“They qualified first and are no longer as dependent on Lionel Messi as before. And can I just say it? There were moments when they were even better without him,” he said.

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