Vaca Muerta continues to grow in production, gain export weight and consolidate dominant players, but now this process is beginning to rely on a Background macroeconomic change This changes incentives and improves long-term visibility. The decision of the government of Change the exchange rate system and abandon the fixed deviation of 1% per month The transition to inflation-adjusted bands redefines the framework Companies in the oil and gas sector operate and brings energy stocks back into the sights of investors.
The new system aims to do this To avoid exchange delays, allow greater accumulation of reserves and reduce pressure on the central bank.
Energy stocks, stars in 2026
Actually, The dollar no longer acts as a nominal anchor for the rest of prices and begins to move in line with inflation.
This shift that has been demanded by the market and by for a long time IMF, improves macroeconomic expectations for 2026 and has a direct impact on country risk, financing and valuation of Argentine assets.
In this context, the energy sector appears to be one of the main beneficiaries. Not only because the company exports and invoices in dollars, but also because it combines size, long-term investments and structural cost improvement that makes it competitive. even with a lower Brent than in previous years.
Vaca Muerta produces more, even at more demanding international prices
The latest data from a report Allaria They confirm that Vaca Muerta has already entered another phase. In October, crude oil production in Argentina almost reached 860,000 barrels per day, with an annual growth of 13%. Shale explains most of these advances and cements the Neuquén Formation as the country’s true energy engine.
This growth is taking place in a less favorable international context. Brent averaged $63.6 in November and managed to operate below $60 in December the lowest level of the year. The consensus is already expecting prices for the fourth quarter of 2025 $63, very far away des $74 the same period of 2024.
This scenario not only slowed down activity, but rather accelerated a process of natural selection among operators. In the new cycle, companies with higher productivity per well, lower production costs, export capacity and access to the capital market are gaining ground.
The result is a more focused energy map where some players stand out clearly from the rest.
YPF, the anchor of the energy system
YPF remains the central pillar of Vaca Muerta’s development. Shale oil production hit a record high of more than 200,000 barrels per day in November, up 20% 82% compared to 2023. The key lies in organizing its assets in productive hubs and especially in the performance of the core hub, where the blocks with the highest productivity are concentrated.
Among them, Loma Campana, La Amarga Chica, Bandurria Sur and Aguada del Chañar stand out. But the case that best sums up YPF’s new profile is La Angostura Sur. In less than a year it almost reached 30,000 barrels per day and aims for a plateau higher than 80,000 barrels. The most relevant data for the market is the cost: break even below $40 and lifting costs close to 5 u$ per barrel.
With prices around 60 US dollars, The Angostura Sur contributes around $500 million yearly EBITDA, even in a less favorable international scenario. These types of numbers explain why YPF can maintain growth even at a lower Brent price.
There is also a clear active portfolio management strategy. The sale of 50% from Profertile from $635 million, Together with the ongoing processes to divest non-strategic assets such as Manantiales Behr or Metrogas, they reinforce the idea of a more focused YPF with greater capital discipline and a decisive commitment to shale.
In the context of a more flexible dollar, lower sovereign risk and cheaper access to finance lThe campaign will once again be positioned as a mandatory reference in the leading panel.
Vista, the pure growth of Argentine slate
If YPF is the anchor, view appears as clearest growth story in the industry. The company founded by Miguel Galuccio already produces nearby 80,000 barrels per day and presented an aggressive plan for the coming years.
Between 2026 And 2028 foresees drill more than 80 wells per yearwith an annual investment expenditure of between $1.5 billion And $1.6 billion. This plan would allow for production 180,000 barrels equivalent per daywith a strong exporter profile, ever since About 75% of the volume would go abroad.
One of the points that the market values most is the robustness of the model. Vista claims that as long as Brent is there, his plan won’t change $60 and has productivity per significantly higher than the Vaca Muerta average and even comparable to the Permian Basin of the United States.
The goal is long term exceed 200,000 barrels equivalent per day by 2030, with a forecast EBITDA of $3.4 billion and a free cash flow of $1.5 billion. In a scenario where the exchange rate matches inflation and reduces financing costs, Vista appears to be one of the big winners of the new energy cycle.
Pampa Energía and the value of diversification
Pampa energy It also becomes more important on this new map. Although its profile is more diversified – it combines gas, electricity and oil – it achieved relevant growth in crude oil production in Vaca Muerta in 2025.
The Diversification This results in lower relative volatility given the fluctuations in the international oil price and allows it to benefit from both shale oil growth and gas and energy infrastructure development. In the context of lower risk Land and financing When it becomes more accessible, the market begins to reevaluate this balanced profile.
Exports, Chile and a demand floor
A key factor in the new cycle is the consolidation of the export front. The long-term agreement with the state Chilean ENAP, These include YPF, Vista, Shell and Equinor. guarantees exports of up to 70,000 barrels per day until 2033.
The trans-Andean oil pipeline (OTASA) with technical capacity 100,000 barrels per day, It once again became a strategic factor and consolidated Argentina as a reliable regional supplier. This system sets a floor on export volumes, reduces dependence on the domestic market and provides predictability in the context of more stringent international prices.
The new exchange rate regime and its impact on energy
With the change to the exchange band scheme, the circle closes. A dollar that goes hand in hand with inflation improves the equation for export companies, which no longer see their revenue in pesos while costs rise.
In the case of oil and gas, this point is crucial. Companies sell crude oil and gas in dollars, but much of their costs – salaries, services, logistics – are in pesos. With an exchange rate that adjusts for inflation, margins become more predictable and the risk of reduced profitability is reduced.
In addition, the expectation of reserve creation and lower country risk has a direct impact on financing costs. That favors both bonds and stocks, because it improves balance sheets, reduces interest expenses and enables new investments without being solely dependent on the local market.
An industry that is once again leading the market
The first market reactions already reflect this climate change. Stocks rose, bonds rose and demand for Argentine assets revived. Within this universe, the energy sector appears to be one of the best positioned to capitalize on the new scenario.
Vaca Muerta was no longer just a long-term promise. Today is an expanding companywith record volumes, competitive costs, growing exports and a macroeconomic framework that is gradually coming into order. In this context, some energy stocks are starting to gain a clear advantage.
final summary
Given this, the energy measures recommended in this new cycle are mainly reduced to:
- YPF: Absolute leadership in Vaca Muerta, scale, low costs and focus strategy on shale.
- View: the purest growth story, strong export profile and high long-term potential.
- Pampa energy: diversified profile, growth in shale and lower relative volatility.
- TGS: benefits from growth in gas, exports and macroeconomic normalization.
with a dollar more flexible, lower country risk and one Dead cow getting faster and faster The energy sector is once again positioning itself as one of the great protagonists of the Argentine market.
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