The State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) has never issued so many data before Rain warnings in one year Like after Dana Valencia. Between November 1 of last year and October 31, 2025, more than … 300 days At least one region of Spain has received some type of active rain warning (yellow, orange or red). Of them, 20 days recorded “extreme danger” Red level, etc 138 days is a huge risk The orange level is due to rainfall, according to Aemet Open Data seen by this newspaper. Since 2018, when the series began, 12 days with red warnings and 95 orange warnings for heavy rain have not been exceeded for a similar period.
Spain continues to assess the damage that flooded Valencia on October 29, 2024. The disaster heightened risk perception due to torrential rain, popularized messaging using the Es-Alert system, and prompted the launch of anti-gun actions that had been stuck for more than a decade. But do you also support activating state agency weather warnings?
Data analyzed by the ABC shows that in the past 12 months, weather warnings have reached the red level We have grown across the board. There were a total of 37 days with at least one warning for the maximum extent, including events caused by high and low temperatures, snow, wind, or rain (only coastal events were excluded from this analysis). The most common warning was a red warning for rain: there were up to 20 days of maximum warning last year. These numbers are unprecedented in the database. Until now, the record was 12 days at extreme risk due to rainfall in 2018-19, which also includes the historic damage that inundated the Vega Baja del Segura region. In previous years, it was common for the phenomenon that led to the most red warnings to be high temperatures.
Moreover, the warning record from last year is not just limited to the maximum danger level. There were 304 days with yellow warnings for rainfall between November 2024 and October 2025, while there were also 138 days with orange warnings. We are Another 62 days with yellow notifications Compared to the previous maximum (2023-2024 period) and 43 additional days with oranges (compared to 2022-2023 period).
The activation of these warnings is usually in response to expectations exceed certain limits Preset rainfall rates in a short period of time. However, in meteorology there is no certainty. It is the science by which he works Possibilities Precipitation forecasting is particularly complex, so it is common to find warnings for heavy rain with a probability of occurring between 40% and 70%. Sometimes less than that.
Damage effect
Consult for this data, from Aemet Rule out that there is a greater tendency The Meteorological Authority activated a rain warning after the damage occurred. They ensure that warnings are put in place unanimously, according to the protocols of the Meteoalerta Plan.
“It seems that in 2025 there were more Adverse weather events than in previous years. “This justifies having more orange or red warnings, as well as a greater focus on the impacts, especially in the province of Valencia,” explains Rubén del Campo, Emmett’s spokesman. To clarify this, it refers to a version Special newsletters So far this year. These reports are issued when the agency expects a particularly adverse weather event, whether due to rain, storms, heat waves, low temperatures or snowfall at low elevations. “In 2025, from January 1 to November 23, we published 37 special bulletins, with the same standards as before Aldana. In 2024, in total, despite the Dana, there were 23 bulletins. In 2023 there were 29 and in 2022 there were 17.
However, as the ABC has been able to verify, of the 37 special warnings this year, 20 correspond to heatwaves. In fact, last summer was the warmest on record. The spring was very wet (fifth wettest since the start of the series in 1961 and third wettest in the 21st century, after 2018 and 2013), while the winter and summer were dry.
Where he recognizes Aemet “Dana Effect.”‘It is when taking into account Additional parameters. When setting notifications. Specifically, Emmett was attended to Exposure and vulnerability From the region. “After the October 2024 flood, there were red warnings, especially in Valencia province, which without the flood probably would not have turned red and probably would have remained orange, because it was assessed that there was greater vulnerability in that area,” del Campo says. The sewers, unusable and the infrastructure destroyed, would have collapsed with less rain. “Although the forecast amount of rain could have remained within the orange warning, since the weakening was greater, it was decided to put in place red warnings,” the spokesperson says. This happened in mid-November, just two weeks after the tragic damage, and also in February of this year.
Incorporating real effects into Aemet’s warnings is an evolution of a system that has been on the table for some time. Parameters such as Population densitynation Infrastructure Or coincidence with Specific dates (such as road return operation), it can be a switch when the weather warning is activated. It’s a model that has been followed for years in the United States. “It is recommended that the impact be taken into account, not just the rainfall threshold,” says del Campo. He explains that this standard began to be implemented this year, but it cannot be applied all at once. These are incremental improvements, which also include the recent creation of the Civil Protection and Institutional Relations Area, which is designed to “strengthen” coordination with Civil Protection.
In the data extracted by ABC, the effect of taking into account the on-ground impact of a harmful phenomenon is clearly observed. Last year, the largest accumulation of red notices was seen Mediterranean coast. Add up to Five days in the red level Due to rain on the southern coast of Valencia, where damage caused chaos, while the northern coast of Valencia remained on high alert for three days. However, there are also areas that have seen red rain warnings in recent months for the first time in at least seven years, according to the database. The city of Andivalo (Huelva) stands out, where it is in severe danger for up to three days.
“The study is short, and this year was significant in terms of rainfall, with a historic spring,” says meteorologist Francisco Martin, now retired from Emmett. Therefore, weather may have an influence in issuing warnings, but it is not excluded social worker. “All humans, when there is an adverse situation like what happened in the Tus Swamp or in the Dana River in October last year, are more sensitive.” He says it happens to the politician who must make the decisions, to the average citizen, and even to meteorologists. However, Martin recalls that Aemet works through coordinated protocols within the Meteoalerta plan. “Everything is interconnected and the result is that there may be an overestimation when it comes to warning, but a study will be needed,” he concludes.