Aemet warns Spain of intense cold at end of year as Iceland hits 20ºC and US experiences historic heat

The cold is the unexpected guest of Christmas and New Year festivities in Spain. The State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) confirms that we have not only experienced Christmas week coldest since 2010but this low temperature situation will last until the New Year and will most likely last until Kings Day.

The situation is surprising, considering that temperatures at this time of year have been trending toward warm anomalies since the beginning of the 21st century. Last winter he recorded an average temperature of 7.8 ºC in the Spanish peninsula, 1.2ºC above average of the reference period 1991-2020. It thus became the fifth hottest since this century.

You don’t have to go far to find our country’s warmest winters: they have been those of 2019-2020 and those of 2023-2024. But while we wait to know if this year will surprise us in the list of the coldest, we have to look outside. Several points in the northern hemisphere record unprecedented heateven from save in the last hours according to the archives.

This is the case of Icelandwho recorded summer temperatures in the middle of Christmas Day. The east coast of the island touched 20ºC in the port towns of Seydisfjordur (19.8°C) or Bakkagerdi (19.7°C). As meteorologist Francisco Martín León reports, at the same time – three o’clock in the afternoon – in Spain the temperatures were three or four degrees below zero on the summits.

Across the Atlantic, the central and southern United States are also facing a hot Christmas. Temperature records for December in Texas have been broken or tied in recent days, with the city of Lubbock reaching 29C and both Houston like Dallas with 28ºC. Tucson, Arizona, also reached 29°C.

“These are very curious, abnormal and intense temperatures,” explains Martín León for EL ESPAÑOL. “But it’s not over: others will arrive this winter.” In the United States they already calculate this the average maximum temperature for the season will reach 12.2 ºC. Not only will this be the highest level ever recorded, but would break the previous record. This happened in 2005, when the average was 9.4ºC.

“Inside the United States, where -3 to -5 ºC should prevailtemperatures are given order of 15-18 ºC generating an extremely warm Christmas”, underlines the specialist. The position of an unexpected anticyclone at this time led some to speak of the formation of ‘a heated dome‘, a configuration even typical of summer.

All these phenomena are linked to each other, explains the meteorologist, and we must look for the reason in an old knowledge: the jet stream, or “polar jet”, one of the main factors which determine the meteorology of our hemisphere. Historically, it has circulated near high latitudes, thus maintaining the cold and humid climate north of the continents.

However, changes such as Warming of the North Pole They cause fluctuations and “meanders” of this current, passing through lower latitudes which include the Iberian Peninsula. This is favored by other abnormal atmospheric configurations, such as the great anticyclone present over Scandinavia which blocks the passage of cold masses and sends them in our direction.

Other local elements are involved. The record in Iceland was favored by the “Foehn effect”, the warming winds overcoming mountain peaks and rolling down the slope. For Spain, the storms in the Mediterranean favored the formation of a corridor of cold air responsible for the low temperatures that have marked recent days.

“In the coming days, the influx of cold air into Europe will will even intensify more due to the marked undulation of the polar jet and the location of the high and low pressure centers”, concludes Martín León. “Most of Europe will remain in the descending-cold branch and will experience below average temperatures, with frost throughout the day in many areas. »

New Year, frosty year

Forecasts indicate that the week of December 29 to January 4, 2026 it will be colder than normal throughout Spain. The exception would be the Canary Islands, with mild values ​​typical of the time of year. Little precipitation is expected across most of the peninsula, except parts of the Mediterranean coast, while more rain than usual may occur in the archipelagos.

The week from January 5 to 11 may also be colder than normal both on the peninsula and in the Balearic Islands. It could be a dry period in Galicia and a rainy period in the far south of the peninsula and both. Finally, from January 12 to 18, temperatures would begin to normalize. The week could be rainier than usual in the south of the peninsula and in the archipelagos, but with uncertainty.