With the official dollar at $1,475, the market opens this up last Friday in 2025 with a look beyond the short term and a focus on the year 2026. The forecasts from private consulting firms, banks and official organizations show a wide range of scenarios: from a moderate increase, about 20%, on estimates that expect an exchange rate above US$2,200, in a context characterized by the new band system and the slowdown in inflation.
The average of private forecasts continues to point to a path of controlled devaluation. For example, according to the latest survey by LatinFocusthe official wholesale exchange rate would close in 2026 $1,746which implies an annual increase of 20.3% The current level of $1,451 serves as a reference.
Inflation and dollar in 2026: the figures predicted by local and international analysts
The report highlights that the peso strengthened after the election victory Javier Mileiwarns, however, that the continuity of this dynamic will depend on the progress of the economic program and in particular on the implementation of structural reforms. A possible setback on this front could put renewed pressure on exchange rate expectations.
In the same direction, the last one Survey of market expectations (REM) des Central Bank of the Argentine Republic estimated the expected exchange rate for December 2026 $1,720just below private consensus and in line with a moderate peg crawling program.
Different scenarios: between optimism and the most demanding forecasts
The survey is above average strong divergence of expectations.
At the top there are Oxford Economics, MAPRE economics, Invecq Consulting And Fitch Ratingswho project a dollar in between $2,020 and $2,215 by the end of 2026, representing a cumulative increase of between 40% and 50%.
One step further down the projections of appear Empiria consultant, Ecolatina And EIUwith estimates between $1,792 and $1,825while Abeceb ($1,705) and Santander ($1,700) remains close to consensus.
Fernando Marull: “The dollar in December 2026 is at $1,856, which is what the market already expected”
At the most optimistic end are alliance, EcoGo, Galician bank And Credicorp Capitalwho appreciate a quote between $1,590 and $1,650. The forecasts are even more harmless Prezco economics ($1,414) and Barclays Capital ($1,335), which even consider a stable or appreciating real exchange rate.
Exchange rate bands and inflation, the keys that the market will follow
In parallel, LatinFocus predicted annual inflation of 23.9% by 2026with a slight downward revision compared to the previous survey. However, the report warned that this was observed after the announcement of changes in the exchange rate system increased demand for CER-adjusted bondsa sign that part of the market is beginning to hedge against a possible slowdown in the disinflation process.
From January, the exchange rate bands will no longer be adjusted to 1% per month and will be linked to inflation. The government claims that the new system aims to avoid exchange rate lags without confirming discretionary jumps, although analysts agree that its effectiveness depends on coherence between fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies.
For now with the official dollar $1,475The market continues to bet on a scenario of a gradual correction, but remains open to the possibility that 2026 will once again test exchange rate stability.
Projected economic growth in 2026
Another piece of data closely followed by the market is the economic growth forecast for next year. In this sense, in the Argentine situation report, the economists of BBVA Research emphasize the continuity of the fiscal and monetary balance as an anchor of the macroeconomic scenario, leaving the GDP growth forecast at 4.5% in 2025 and assuming a growth of 3% in 2026, with progress in the disinflation process, changes in exchange rate policies and the persistence of sectoral heterogeneity.
How much could the dollar reach in 2026 if the exchange rate matches inflation?
Regarding the adjustment of the exchange rate system established by the BCRA, the adjustment of inflation margins from January 2014 and the announcement of the foreign reserve accumulation program (BCRA will purchase foreign exchange based on the growth of money demand), BBVA Research stated that “it is a step in the right direction to strengthen the country’s financial position, although not sufficient to ensure the stability of the BCRA’s balance sheet in the face of volatility episodes.”
The dollar is losing value worldwide while the euro is gaining value
Finally, about the advice BRIDGE conducted an analysis of the next decisions the Fed may make in the near future and assessed this as a “near-term” perspective is that the dollar temporarily continues to lose value against other developed currencies“Given the expectation of a further cut in the benchmark interest rate in 2026, the impact of trade policy and concerns on the budget front.”
The consulting firm assumed an environment of high interest rates, which would strengthen the currency. Heglobal dollar index (DXY) gave up 1.7% in the last 30 days up to the current value of 98.5 points (pp).
In this sense, The euro would gain ground and average $1.19 per euro in the 1st quarter (January-March) 2026.
Now it is European Central Bank The European Central Bank (ECB) left the interest rate unchanged at 2.15% at the last meeting of the year. The company stressed that inflation has hovered around the 2% annual target in recent months and that the economy continues to expand.
However, it remains cautious and does not provide any information on monetary policy movements in 2026.
It is worth noting that days ago the organization that leads Jerome Powell made another cut in the interest rate, positioning it in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%.
According to Powell, the decision comes out of necessity “Maintaining economic stability in a context of moderate slowdown”.
The Fed President explained that the rate cut was a response to a common assessment Working conditions, household spending, business investment and recent inflation trendswhich continues to weaken but is still above the agency’s target.
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