Agriculture has been fundamental for the improvement of certain economic indicators in Brazil in 2025, such as gross domestic product (GDP) and the reduction of inflation, but internal and external factors represent risks and will challenge rural producers in 2026, according to data published and projections made, on December 9, by the Brazilian Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock (CNA).
The balance of the agricultural sector in 2025 and the prospects for 2026 were presented at a press conference, in the presence of the president of the CNA, João Martins; the director of international relations, Sueme Mori; and the technical director, Bruno Lucchi.
The CNA estimated that the agroindustry was one of the responsible for the positive results of the macroeconomic indices, such as the reduction of inflation, which is expected to close the year at 4.4%, and the projected growth of 1% of the GDP of the agroindustry in 2026, after an estimated expansion of 9.6% (3.13 trillion reais) for 2025. Without the contribution of the agroindustry, there would be a risk of further non-compliance with the objective, which would require the maintenance of a more restrictive monetary policy, given that the Selic rate is 15% per year. In the fiscal scenario, 2026 will be a difficult year for the Brazilian economy, with emphasis on the need for fiscal adjustment.
Financial and climate vulnerability
Regarding debt, rural credit recorded in October this year its highest default rate since the start of the historic series, in 2011, reaching 11.4%. In the same period of the previous year the value was 3.54%, and in January 2023 it was 0.59%. For the CNA, the economic recovery of rural producers will depend on the ability to articulate structural solutions that reduce financial and climatic vulnerability, promoting predictability, confidence and resilience for sustainable growth of Brazilian agriculture.
Gross production value (GPV) is estimated to reach R$1.57 trillion in 2026, an increase of 5.1% compared to 2025. The agricultural sector is expected to total R$1.04 trillion (+6.6%), driven by increased grain production. Livestock VBP is expected to increase by 2.2%, reaching R$528.09 billion, with beef cattle breeding expanding by 4.7%.
For 2025, VBP is estimated at R$1.49 trillion, an expansion of 11.9% compared to 2024. The livestock segment is expected to play a leading role, with a projected increase of 14.2% (R$516.52 billion), driven by the recovery in beef cattle prices. Agriculture is expected to record an increase of 10.8%, reaching 981.30 billion reais, supported by the good performance of soybean and corn harvests.
According to the National Supply Company (Conab), projections for the 2025/2026 harvest indicate that total production is expected to exceed the volume harvested in the previous harvest, reaching 354.8 million tonnes, an increase of 0.8%. The soybean area is projected at approximately 49.1 million hectares and production at 177.6 million tonnes, an increase of 3.6%. For corn, a 2.5% drop in second harvest production is forecast, for a total of 110.5 million tonnes. Taking into account the three harvests, the total production will be 138.8 million/tonne (-1.6%). In rice, a reduction in surface areas is expected, which should impact the production result by 11.3 million tonnes (-11.5%), reflecting a stagnation in consumption which caused a drop in prices in 2025.
Cattle slaughter in Brazil increased by 5.6% in 2025, through the third quarter, while beef production increased by 3.8% over the period. The increase in female slaughter in total slaughter (49.9%) is expected to reduce the supply of cattle and replacement animals more sharply in 2026, with expectations of rising prices in the livestock market.
On the international scene, the Confederation estimates that the year 2026 should be marked by intense movements, with the United States maintaining an aggressive trade policy, in line with the strategy of stimulating industrialization and attracting foreign investment. If the additional 40% customs duties on products not included in the exception lists remain, the impact on the sector could reach up to $2.7 billion in annualized terms in 2026, or around 22% of Brazilian agricultural exports to the country. This year, between August and November, agricultural exports to the US market recorded a decline of 37.85% compared to the same period last year.
Chinese investigations into beef imports into the country could result in safeguards being applied in the country, affecting product purchases from all suppliers. Brazil represents around 50% of Chinese imports of this product.
The uncertainty of the agreement with the United States is also worrying. An agreement involving a commitment to buy American soybeans could reduce the share of Brazilian soybeans in the Chinese market. The CNA also warns of the directions that should guide the Asian country’s 15th five-year plan, which aims to strengthen agriculture and reduce dependence on imported products, particularly cereals.
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