In the race to break down resistance to his presidential pre-candidacy, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) has focused his speeches in the Senate on themes that loyalize Bolsonarism and position him as an antagonist of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, but this could distance him from the role of unifying the opposition desired by Centrão to approve the intention to run at the Planalto Palace. There are also points in the parliamentarian’s rhetoric that should be exploited as flaws by opponents during the campaign.
GLOBO analyzed all of Flávio’s speeches in plenary since the start of his mandate, in February 2019, until October 14, the date of the last statement made available by the Senate. The initiative is part of the “Com a Palavra” project, which uses artificial intelligence tools to process and interpret large volumes of declarations from authorities. The 190 speeches have 61 thousand words, a size similar to that of the book “Dom Casmurro”, a classic by Machado de Assis.
In the case of the senator, the collection indicates the lines that should be used in the presidential race, one of them being the association with his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro, the most cited name, with 26 mentions. Criticism of Lula’s administration also constitutes the political strategy necessary to obtain the share of almost half of the electorate that did not vote for the PT member in 2022, in a conflict won by a difference of only 1.8 million votes.
One in four of Flávio’s speeches focuses on the current government, putting the topic at the top of the rankings. If we take into account all the speeches, even those mostly devoted to another subject, one in three contains some criticism of Lula.
In his latest speeches, the senator associated the PT government with weaknesses in the management of the economy, such as criticism of the increase in tax pressure, the growth of public spending and the difficulty of controlling the budget deficit. The tone is consistent with proposals he is expected to adopt if his candidacy succeeds, such as advocating lower taxes, a leaner state and reduced spending.
Criticisms of public safety and advocacy for more flexible access to guns are other things that come up when the senator speaks. In response, Lula’s defenders say Bolsonaro’s government has harmed the poorest by cutting social programs, rhetoric that should be used against Flávio. Government supporters also say that expanding access to guns is not an effective policy for fighting crime.
Flávio also began to explore sensitive episodes for Planalto, such as the scandal of fraudulent reductions in INSS benefits, cited by him as an example of “rigging” and “lack of attention to the poorest”. Planalto’s allies, in turn, point out that the increase in the number of members associated with the entities already came from the previous administration and are trying to integrate Bolsonaro into the project.
Calculation between mobilization of activism and expansion of operations
It is precisely in his position on the former president that Flávio is confronted, at the same time, with points that mobilize activism, but which can alienate groups that are not favorable to Lula, but which do not prioritize extreme agendas such as the attacks on the Supreme Federal Court (STF).
In moments of strong tension between Bolsonarism and the judiciary, such as the one recently faced by the conviction and imprisonment of the former president, Flávio broadens his arsenal against Minister Alexandre de Moraes, rapporteur of the putschist plot to the Court. The defense of amnesty for those found guilty of the events of January 8 also appears in this context. Last week, the House approved a plan that reduces sanctions and could benefit Bolsonaro.
— What they are doing to former President Bolsonaro is not justice. This is an attempt to demoralize those who represent millions of Brazilians who have never seen themselves considered by the left – he said in October 2025, a few weeks after his father was sentenced to 27 years and three months in prison. — They do not accept that he (Bolsonaro) continues to be a popular leader, that is why they are trying to remove him by force and not by vote — he stressed on another occasion.
In September last year, while Bolsonaro was still under investigation for attempted coup, he said the STF was “concentrating power” and “interfering in the political process.” On August 14, 2025, he added that Moraes “accumulated” powers outside the Constitution:
— He arrests, accuses, investigates and judges.
This more aggressive speech against the Supreme Court is received with reservations by the Centrão parties. Members of the bloc believe that direct attacks on the Court make it difficult to build a candidacy capable of bringing together alliances beyond the Bolsonaro core. Names like PP President Senator Ciro Nogueira (PI), one of the main organizers in this field, have publicly reiterated that they do not support initiatives such as the dismissal of STF ministers, a position that reflects a pragmatic calculation aimed at avoiding further outbreaks of instability.
As O GLOBO has already shown, other leaders of the PP, União Brasil and PSD believe that the anti-STF tone “closes the doors” and increases the rejection of the senator in decisive segments of the electorate.
Last week, a Datafolha survey showed that Flávio is rejected by 38% of voters, who say they would not vote for him at all, on par with MP Eduardo Bolsonaro (37%) and former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro (35%).
The difference is significant compared to other candidates opposed to Lula, such as governors Romeu Zema (Minas Gerais), Ratinho Júnior (Paraná), Tarcísio de Freitas (São Paulo) and Ronaldo Caiado (Goiás), who have between 21 and 18% rejection.
In this attempt to downplay the rough edges, Flávio also takes a more conciliatory approach at times.
— The moment Brazil is going through calls for a lot of balance and dialogue. Being stuck in this unstable zone, I think it’s not good for anyone – he said in August this year during the session that analyzed Lula’s appointment to the Higher Military Court (STM) of Verônica Abdalla Sterman, who already defended Minister Gleisi Hoffmann (Institutional Relations).
The search to broaden the scope of the discourse appears in the evocation of policies aimed at the family, child protection and the fight against drugs, in a strategy of dialogue with conservative sectors not necessarily engaged in institutional confrontation. Religious discourse also has space, although in a more specific way. Uncomfortable topics, such as suspicions of “rachadinha” when he was a state deputy, in an investigation subsequently archived by the Federal Court (STF), are rare in the speeches.
— There are three clear axes. The first is the explicit link between Flávio’s name and that of his father, keeping alive the flame of Bolsonarism among the most ardent supporters, especially with Alexandre de Moraes as antagonist. The second axis is a more propositional agenda, which dialogues with the legacy of the Bolsonaro government, with popular agendas and opposition to the current government, such as criticism of INSS fraud or the end of DPVAT. And the third is the attempt to maintain an increasingly relevant social base, which is evangelical, with mentions of God and religious themes — said political scientist Leandro Consentino, from Insper.
About The Author
