A little over six months before the start of the 2026 World Cup, the group draw defined, this Friday, the table for the tournament which will be the largest in history. With 48 teams divided into 12 groups — from A to L — the World Cup will begin in an expanded format, which includes 104 matches and an additional knockout phase before the round of 16. In this new scenario, artificial intelligence platforms have started to estimate, based on their own figures and modeling, which country is strongest in the fight for the title.
According to the projections of different AI systems, Spain appears as the main favorite to win the cup in the United States, Mexico and Canada. The tools analyze rankings, recent statistics, collective performance and historical patterns to calculate probabilities. In each of them, the Spanish team appears ahead of France and England, teams which also appear in the elite block.
Google Gemini gave the Spanish title a 17% chance, followed by French (14%) and English (11%). In a similar assessment, another platform also identified Spain as the country most likely to reach the top, keeping the numbers close. Grok’s AI analysis increased that margin to 19%, highlighting team depth and defensive consistency as deciding factors in a longer and physically exhausting World Cup.
Brazil, although a traditional candidate, appears further away in the first projections. According to one estimate, the team appears to have a 5% chance of winning the sixth championship, a reflection of recent fluctuations and increased competitiveness through the expansion of the tournament.
With defined groups and a new design of the competition – which includes the ranking of the top two in each group and the eight third-placed teams – the 2026 World Cup promises longer courses, unprecedented crossovers and a volume of matches never seen before. The debut will take place on June 11, at the Azteca stadium in Mexico City, a historic venue that will host the World Cup for the third time.