Amid the exodus of directors, INDEC is preparing important changes that will change the way inflation and salaries are measured

INDEC is preparing changes a set of key indicators of the economy This will impact the way inflation and wages are measured. The most will come into force in the first quarter of next year in a context where a lower rate of disinflation is expected due to a possible upward movement of the dollar due to the new exchange rate system.

The first step will be to introduce one new consumer price index (CPI) from February with the information from Inflation in January. The idea is that it reflects changing consumer habits due to the outdated parameters with a lag of 20 years, which has caused controversy recently.

The start of the series or base period that determines the price structure will be 2025 because it is assumed to be closest in time to the release of the new indicator and has fewer relative price adjustments. “We completed the work between March and April after testing. 2025 was favorable because it was more stable,” INDEC sources said.

Strictly speaking, the update should be ready by mid-2022 under the direction of Alberto Fernández. A technical mission of the Monetary Fundled by economist Brian Graf technical advice At the end of 2023 to the institute under the direction of Marco Lavagna. But it was ultimately postponed until today.

Following international recommendations, the The new shopping cart is updated with the latest National Household Expenditure Survey (ENGHo), This is from 2017-2018 and will replace the one that currently feeds the CPI with data from 2004-2005. As a result, you will be assigned a lower weight for goods and a greater weight for services.

In this way, current products and services are integrated, such as: Streaming platformsand this is given greater importance Mobile phone. They are also taken into account Variations depending on region: Services have a higher weight than goods in the city of Buenos Aires, while the opposite is true outside the metropolitan area and in lower-income sectors.

Each basket captures the inflation phenomenon differently. The new one includes 500,000 prizes compared to the current 320,000. The other difference is that inflation tends to be slightly lower in months when food prices rise would better reflect increases in services, rents, communications and transportation.

Using the new methodology, consulting firm Equilibra estimated that food and non-alcoholic beverages – the highest incidence items in the CPI – would increase from 26.9% of the current shopping basket to 22.7%, clothing and shoes would decrease from 9.9% to 6.8%, while restaurants and hotels would reduce their share from 9% to 6.6%.

Health (from 8% to 6.4%), alcoholic beverages and tobacco (from 3.5% to 2%), and household appliances and maintenance (from 6.4% to 5.5%) would also decline. In contrast, housing, electricity, gas and other fuels will have a greater weight (9.4% to 14.5%) due to the greater relevance of rents and tariffs for public services.

The new index changes are made amid rising inflation. After reaching the lower bound in May (1.5% per month), general inflation accelerated each month, reaching 2.5% per month in November, again driven by the increase in the services sector (3.4%), as a result of the adjustment of energy and transport tariffs.

At INDEC they reiterate that the new consumer price index, if introduced in 2024, would have created a “distortion” in the services sector. According to Martín González Rozada, co-director of the master’s program in econometrics at the University of Torcuato Di Tella, if it had been updated, it would have been updated. Inflation of 117.8% reported by INDEC last year would have been 133.6%.15.8 points higher.

Looking ahead to 2026, analysts are predicting one new effects of tariff adjustments stopped in the months before the elections and the subsidies will be cut again in 2026. This will also affect the Premiere in January for the new bands Exchange rates adjusted for inflation over the last two months in response to fund and investor demand.

In addition to setting the dollar cap The new CPI will serve as a reference for a number of variablessuch as, among others, the interest rate on deposits and loans, pension benefits, the update of the non-taxable minimum income (MNI), the installments and settlement amounts of the Monotributo.

The organization also works in the Salary index updatewhich measures variation in the registered private sector, the public sector and the unregistered private sector. The plan is Eliminate the five month delay to highlight the salary of informal workers, a criterion that today shows an obvious improvement from 5.7% in November compared to 1.4% for registered workers.

The other ongoing project is Introduction of a productivity indexsomething that today’s economists estimate based on GDP relative to the number of people in employment. INDEC counted on funds from the IDB and the support of the economist Ariel CorembergConsultant to the World Bank and specialist in productivity measurement.

INDEC is also preparing a new poverty ratealthough it would not come to light in 2026. For 30 years it has been measured using the Permanent Household Survey (EPH), which records the income of individuals and households. Anyone who does not meet their basic food and non-food needs in the month in which they were interviewed by INDEC is poor.

After all, that’s it Bill to make it a decentralized and autonomous entity with functional autonomy under the responsibility of the Ministry of Economic Affairs, instead of a decentralized body that reports directly to the minister, as is the case today. According to the 2026 budget, it will have $23.4 billion, but without any funds of its own.

Due to government adjustment Today there are 1,172 employees, 110 fewer than in 2024, and six empty addresses. The exodus is due to the Department of Deregulation’s order to retire people of retirement age Resignations due to salary freezes. The last to leave were the directors of the CPI, the EPH, Statistics and Prices and Living Conditions Statistics.