December begins, which will be a very volatile month: investors will be attentive to the movements of the Minister of Economy, Louis CaputoThis is in light of the need for $4.2 billion to repay sovereign bond maturities in January.
The only way is a loan. Reports indicate progress in this direction. Caputo closes buybacks with investment banks. Morgan Stanley does exist, confirmation from the rest is missing. They analyze the details of the agreement and believe that the December torment will be short.
Consulting companies focused their analyzes on this event and the change in the mood of local investors. That started unwinding its dollar coverage.
The list of options is very extensive. All the cards are on the table and the government is studying them. The ultimate solution will likely be A mix
For EconViews, the consulting company he runs Miguel Kegelhe initially said: “Let us clarify the most important unknowns: We have no doubt that this money will be paid. The political will is there and the cost of a setback is unimaginable for the current program. The million-dollar question is not whether it will be paid, but what financial alchemy the economic team will use to make the dollars appear. The list of options is very broad. All the cards are on the table and the government is exploring them. The solution will likely end up being mix. There is always the possibility of picking up the phone and managing some file extension Switch With the US Department of the Treasury. This is what happened with the last interest payment to the International Monetary Fund, and we do not rule that out in the uncle’s letter Scott (Besant) Secretary of the Treasury of the United States) will run again.
The report adds that the economic team is “exploring other options so as not to upset Scott. There is talk of new repo with international banks. We have already had a dose of the latter this year. Although it is usually a very short-term debt, it can act as a financial bridge to absorb summer cash flows without any problems. The disadvantage is that the securities must be offered as collateral and exposes the Treasury to the risk of having to provide more guarantees if the bond price falls. In any case, both repo agreements and foreign aid mean increased Short-term liabilities.
For FMyA, consulting Fernando Marol“The global context remained positive for Argentina, as Brazil was in recovery mode and soybean prices maintained above US$400 per ton. There are tailwinds for Argentina and the government should take advantage of them.”
According to FMyA, “The dollar front should remain calm in December, due to increased wheat supplies and financial flow, offsetting increased demand for tourism and dollarization. Treasury bought just $200 million of the $4.2 billion in debt issued by corporations and provinces in November (they have time left to monetize dollars). The good thing? BCRA and Treasury continue to reduce exchange rate coverage ahead of the election (they cut it by $6 billion).” The dollar is linked and futures) but still don’t buy reserves. The key to financial calm will be the loan announcement with banks for the January payment of US$4.2 billion. New financing, as well as developments in the exchange rate regime (if they occur), should reduce country risk by one step.
For its part, 1816 asks: “Can the government make large purchases of reserves through this exchange plan?” This “remains the key market uncertainty following Mayley’s landslide election victory, given that the point remains uncomfortably close to the ceiling of the range and the CCL is even exceeding it,” he says.
Regarding interest rates, the advisor notes that “after the election, we assumed that interest rates would fall (which they did), but also that the monetary scheme would be adjusted at least marginally (which did not happen). Under the current scheme, the overnight interest rate has a floor (what the BCRA pays at one time), but no ceiling. This represents a risk of an extension. period In pesos: If for any reason the exchange rate returns to the ceiling of the range (we are below 5%), the government can allow exchange rates to rise again. This is especially true after the EMAE data for the third quarter: despite the fact that we have very high active rates, GDP grew in the three months (it is difficult to get a better example of the low sensitivity of activity to the rate).
F2 consulting company Andres Reschini He noted that reserves “are still a topic of discussion and the remaining feeling is that the market does not feel comfortable with the current level in terms of achieving the target with the IMF and, above all, the foreign currency debt obligations that loom on the horizon just after 2026. The signal issued by the government is a warning signal when it comes to the release of the peso, given that the BCRA managed to lower interest rates and reserves, but the Treasury did not miss a significant amount of pesos in the debt tender on Wednesday.” As it did not make relevant forex purchases in December, it should face $40 billion worth of peso maturities, which may be helped by greater seasonal demand for the currency, but there is still a large maturity that requires prudence, so chances are that the accumulation of reserves through currency purchases will have to wait for some time.
He points out that in December, with the start of the parliamentary sessions of the new Congress, “politics will once again exert its influence in markets awaiting news on the budget, labor and tax reform while there is still uncertainty about how to obtain funds to meet foreign currency obligations for the whole of 2026.”
Bitcoin’s slow recovery, which was above $91,000 yesterday, was the focus of Buenbit’s report. “The pullback from $125,000 to support areas around $80,000/$86,000 forced us to reconsider assumptions: the role of institutional flows, reliance on retail sentiment, sensitivity to macroeconomics and realignments between groups. On the chain. But what seemed like a phase of surrender has turned, imperceptibly, into a phase of rebalancing. This change, backed by solid data, begins to define the narrative that will carry the market into December.
This month, says Poinbet, they expect “the price of Bitcoin to stabilize between US$88,000 and US$95,000, with an initial but uncertain recovery, institutional inflows that are no longer a clearly negative factor, and a global macro economy moving towards a soft monetary landing. In this context, December appears as a month of transition rather than a month of rupture.”
The market, apart from this discomfort caused by the accumulation of reserves and loan grants to cancel the January maturities, is optimistic and the positive trend could be repeated this week. Few plan to get out of bonds and stocks and miss the rebound that announcing buybacks or another way to get dollars to pay the $4.2 billion due in January would mean.