After the election shock and the shift in market narrative, stability no longer depends on expectations but on results. Argentina is now facing the moment when its reputation will be restored – or broken again – on the basis of concrete facts. The weeks after the elections confirmed the turnaround that business and politics had indicated: the previous crisis was not about solvency or the program, but about credibility. The electoral support and the recomposition of the legislative body have clarified the immediate scenario, but left the real challenge in sight: Transform initial trust into a path to sustainable growth.
The market had been expecting a collapse for months: a weakened government unable to maintain exchange rate stability or negotiate in the US congress. But the results of the elections showed the opposite. The ruling party made significant progress in both chambers – without a majority, which would be impossible in any scenario – and received a clear political mandate to continue the macroeconomic ordering process. This confirmation opened a window that had not been seen in years. On the one hand, it reduced the risk of political paralysis; On the other hand, it dispelled fears of an abrupt correction that the market itself had priced in. But opportunity is no guarantee of outcome. The challenge now is entirely management: ensuring that financial, monetary and exchange rate stability results in a favorable environment for investment, production and formal job creation.
The real challenge is to transform initial trust into a path of sustainable growth.
Argentina The economy faces a familiar paradox: fiscal consolidation and the accumulation of reserves are essential prerequisites for reducing inflation, but reducing inflation alone does not guarantee a sustainable path. Without growth, all economic, social and political stability is fragile. Recent history – and even more distant history – shows that stabilization without development always ends in frustration. The country must advance structural reforms that correct the distortions that have hampered its potential for decades. The labor market requires modernization to increase productivity and reduce informality. The tax system needs to be simplified and remove burdens that hinder investment and real job creation. And the cost structure needs to be aligned with international standards so that tradable sectors can compete with predictability.
If this process progresses with clear signals and minimal political agreements, this should be reflected in a sustained reduction in country risk. This decline is not a technical fact: it is the essential prerequisite for investment projects to become profitable again and forever Argentina is regaining its ability to finance itself on reasonable terms. No expansion is possible without credit.
What is needed is consistency, coordination and a clear direction that the market can verify based on facts and not just talk.
The risk, however, is to fall back into the temptation to believe that politics can predict outcomes. Trust is a commodity that is slowly rebuilt and immediately lost. A positive election or the international support gained in critical weeks is no longer enough: what is needed now is consistency, coordination and a clear course that the market can verify in facts and not just in speeches. Argentina It has been trapped in a cycle of short-lived growth and recurrent relapse for several decades. Structural poverty, labor informality and relative decline compared to the region are symptoms of a deeper problem: the inability to maintain long-term rules. This time the company expressed its trust. The financial commitment is there, the political support is there and the opportunity is real.
The question is whether this time the country will be able to turn this opportunity into development. It no longer depends on an election shock or an external announcement. It depends on daily management, implementation and institutional maturity to avoid a repeat of history that has so often brought us back to the same starting point.
The author is Professor of Economics at IAE Business School and Chief Economist at BlackTORO Global. This note was published in the November IEM of the IAE, Business School of the Universidad Austral
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