AtlasIntel: Lula would beat all right-wing candidates in 2026 | Policy

According to the survey carried out in partnership with Bloomberg, the least advantages appear precisely in confrontations with names from the Bolsonaro family – Flavio And Michelleboth with a difference of 18.8 percentage points – but Lula would still win. According to the researchers, this indicates “that Bolsonarist political capital continues to be the main pole of competition”.

In all other scenarios, Lula preserves the margin with advantage, especially in alternative scenarios, such as against Ronaldo Caiadowhere the distance reaches 32.5%, highlighting the difficulty of consolidating a competitive name outside the Bolsonarist axis.

In the scenario with the Bolsonaro family, Lula is in front Flavio (48.1% versus 29.3%). The same advantage is observed in the dispute against Michelle (48.8% versus 30%).

In the scenario against the governor of São Paulo, Tarcisio de Freitas (Republicans), Lula would be ahead from 48.8% to 28.3%. In a simulation with Caiado, Lula leads from 48.8% to 16.3%.

In a scenario that includes Flávio Bolsonaro and Tarcísio, Lula comes out on top with 47.9% compared to 21.3% for Flávio and 15% for Tarcísio.

In hypothetical second-round scenarios for 2026, Lula also continues to have an advantage over all his opponents, with margins between 4 and 25 percent.

In a scenario against the former president Jair Bolsonaro – who is ineligible – Lula would win by 50% against 46%, the smallest advantage over the candidates considered. The same percentage difference is observed during the confrontation with Tarcísio (49% to 45%). Against Michelle, the difference amounts to 5%.

Regarding Lula’s greatest advantages, they appear against Flávio (53% to 41%) and the most significant with Eduardo Leite (49% to 24%).

In all three scenarios, against Caiado, Romeu Zema and Ratinho Jr, Lula’s advantage is 10%.