Azcun will win the elections in Aragon if he advances and he can choose between Fox and Aragon as he is there to rule

If it goes to the polls today, the Popular Party will improve its 2023 result and grow even more focused 38.2% of the votes According to the social survey of EL ESPAÑOL DE ARAGÓN.

This data represents three tenths more compared to the last poll published in these pages on April 23.

With this result, Azcon will be one of the few PP barons who can choose a partner to continue leading the government, and carry out Genoa’s order to do everything possible so that the Vox Party can No interference from executives.

You will get that popularity Between 30 and 31 seats They can count on the existing Aragon Teruel, which will retain its three current deputies despite its decline (the previous poll gave them four).

At this time, Azcon will be too It is closer to confirming the thirty-first representative than remaining the thirty-first.

This trend is positive, but given the fragmentation of the Aragon Parliament – ​​eight parties compared to four in Extremadura and five in Andalusia – an absolute majority would be excluded even if the Parliament mounts an extraordinary electoral campaign.

Therefore, it is certain that the next government will exit, yes or yes, from an agreement.

But this still image has a double reading. If the People’s Party gets these 31 representatives, it will have their support Thomas my guitar That might be enough to govern, but if he doesn’t and stays at 30, he will have real problems securing a majority. Especially if, as SocioMétrica points out, PAR The Cortes end up staying out.

Alberto Izquierdo He will stay With 0.9% of the votes Punishable by the framework of autonomy and lack thereof He drags The municipality is key in the recent elections.

It will not achieve representation even in light of a hypothetical alliance with the Popular Party in Teruel, which will not change the distribution of the 14 representatives concerned in the region.

The explanation must be sought in the sincerity of the vote: only 23.6% of those who elected Aragon in 2023 will do so again three years later. A meaningful vote can give the final touch to their aspirations On election day.

If this happens, the People’s Party will arrive at the inauguration debate A maximum of 33 deputies (Popular Party + Aragon-Teruel is present) It will again depend on the Vox Party, whether for its outright support or its abstention, which would free up the legislature in the second vote where Azcun got more answers than no.

The Abascal party continues its rise and improved each of the seven deputies in the last regional elections Like the number 9 that the last EL ESPAÑOL poll gave him.

Pilar Alegria Falls

Vox will emerge strengthened by the electoral lead With 11 deputies And 16.9% of the votes, although they are clearly on an upward trend, may become insignificant if Azkun finds his way.

There is worse news for the SWP Pilar Alegría.

The Socialists will give up up to six seats and keep 17-18 seats. They will collect 23.9% of the votes, but their tendency, far from indicating a return, is Obviously landing.

Although Aragon will go alone to the elections, the scandals affecting the environment Pedro Sanchez and Bombs Which they release Koldo Garcia And the former minister Jose Luis Abalos They appear to be making progress, moving away from the 23 seats they currently hold and the 20 seats given to them by the poll published on Aragon Day.

Where will those votes go? The most logical option is to consider Podemos and IU, Which scratched 4.3% and 1.7% respectively. But there is also a depressing vote going to the People’s Party (3.4%) and the Vox Party (2.2%).

The purple ones will retain their only deputy now that their internal situation is clearer after a year without heads. They will receive 3.5% of the subsidy, while CHA will receive 3.5% of the subsidy He will reserve two seats It will still be less than the 3 that currently exist.

IU, which just finished its renovation, would be better off. Alvaro Sanz I won’t repeat as a candidate, but those Marta Abenjochea Their representation will double and reach 2 MPs, 4.8% From the vote thanks to the strength of its brand.

Here we must see how the left of the Socialist Workers’ Party participates in the elections: Either together or separately. If they do it jointly, Podemos and Io could get 3 to 4 deputies.

According to the governorates

The analysis by province leaves particularly revealing data. For example, that PP would be Strongest in Zaragoza (37.8%), This will happen in Huesca and Teruel, as will happen with the Vox party, which will receive 17.4% of the votes in the capital.

The same will not happen with the PSOE, where Pilar Alegría will get that A better percentage in Huesca (25.8%), Where he received his greatest support even at times Javier LampanCompared to Zaragoza (23.4%).

The particular conflict between the presence of the Aragon-Teruel and the People’s Army will be resolved in favor of the former, but the Guitarite side cannot take anything for granted either, as their numbers seem to be evolving downwards. In the April poll, they achieved 22.1% in Teruel, while in this poll they remained at 17.1%, with A 5-point drop in just eight months.

If this percentage continues to decline decreased 17%The formation could see his third seat in jeopardy, making it more difficult to join the People’s Party.

Azkon, better than the other barons

According to the SocioMétrica survey, the People’s Party would do well if the election date was brought forward in Aragon, however How good are you compared to barons like Juanma Moreno or Maria Guardiola?

His percentage will be lower than the required 40%, and perhaps lower than that of his fellow members, who range between 41% and 43%, but with this 38%, he will give Azcon a higher percentage of the vote. Real punch on the tableBecause he could rule without the Vox Party, an option that the People’s Party would not have had either in Andalusia – where it was assumed that there would not be an absolute majority either – or in Castile and León or Extremadura, achieving an image of power and prestige before the rest of the barons.

It is usual for a government party to grow beyond what the polls say if it has a good election campaign (as happened in Galicia and Andalusia), but there are precedents for the opposite as well. As happened with Castile and Leon.

So Aragon’s future could begin to be shaped in the coming weeks, with the story of the potential failure of negotiations gaining particular importance. From the 2026 budget.

It must be borne in mind that simply announcing electoral progress would actually move the vote forward and clarify potential alliances such as Podemos and the international federation. The Extremadura result will also be decisive It could change everything.

Technical sheet:

Sample size:

1,200 interviews in Aragon (500 in Zaragoza, 100 in Huesca, 100 in Teruel, and 500 in the rest of the municipalities, in proportion to their censuses).

Field date:

Field: November 24-28, 2025.

Interview system:

CAWI with pre-designed gender and age classes using interconnected online panels.

Margin of error:

<3% for voting and other items.

+- 1 deputy for government scenarios.