Yes, the year 2025 ends with only 365 days. It is hard to believe that in just one year the economic team has concentrated a series of announcements, decisions and shocks that have kept the Argentine financial market in suspense. Towards April there was a partial exit from the exchange rate. It was a turning point and the beginning of a new regime. Two months later, the international issuance of Bonte 2030, a dollar-denominated peso bond, marked the impetus for the Treasury to re-enter international markets. A milestone for the debt in pesos, which we have not had since 2018. Later, the end of the LEFI meant a reorganization of the monetary system, which led to periods of very high volatility in all reference interest rates in the economy. It was enough to make it clear that the process would not be linear.
The political calendar became more important in September. The elections in Buenos Aires Province They represented a very severe setback for the ruling party and raised renewed doubts about the political scope to maintain the economic program. The initial reaction was defensive, with greater caution on local assets, a retreat from risk positions and a dizzying rise in interest in currency hedging. In this context, external support began to play a key role. Activate the swap with USA and the explicit signals of the North American Treasury Department, including the statements and message of Scott Bessent over the purchase of pesos helped to stabilize expectations and ease short-term tensions. This allowed us to reach the midterm elections with the current banding scheme, even in a context of strong demand for pre-election coverage. the highest in Argentine history.
The October result was seen by the market as confirmation that the economic program remained politically viable despite the previous setback for the PBA. There was no euphoria, but relief. From then on, the government showed more moderation in its discourse and a more explicit search for consensus. The market took note. This shift contributed to a further reduction in the country’s risk, which is expected to end the year at around 570 basis points. A similar level to the start of 2025, still above the January lows but very far from the September peak when it reached 1,456 points.
Against this backdrop, corporate emissions accelerated and reached record levels. The window for provincial funding has also been reopened. He Treasure tried to take advantage of the tailwind with a dollar issuance under local law. The operation was positive, but still not enough to fully seduce international investors. He Economic team He didn’t stay still. He introduced a “service” to the system, adjusted the exchange rate bands and modified the reserve accumulation mechanism of the Central Bankwhich links it to the recovery in money demand. This change gave an additional boost to sovereign risk compression and leaves the door open as Parliament has already approved a 2026 budget allowing the issuance of debt under foreign law Treasure finally gain access to international markets again.
The political calendar will also be relevant. The midterm elections in the USA are particularly important because of the relationship between Milei and Trump
Looking ahead to 2026, the Exchange Central explains how to accumulate dollars. Purchasing on the foreign exchange market or issuing debt securities. A priori, both the last statement of the Central Bank such as the 2026 budget suggest a fairly clear role model. He Central Bank with greater presence in the foreign exchange market. He Treasure with the aim of regaining access to the markets roll Capital terms. The strategy appears to be in line with the international context. The Federal Reserve It is in the process of lowering interest rates, thereby improving the overall financial cost of debt. Additionally, there are market discounts achieved through the cuts USA They would be more aggressive than in other economies, a difference that could increase the depreciation of the dollar and the flow toward emerging markets, as has already been the case for much of 2025. None of this is without risks. The Fed’s tightening cycle is partly a response to the weakness that the U.S. labor market has shown. In addition, there will be a change in the organization’s presidency in May, an event with potential implications for the institution’s credibility.
Added to that is the front Japan. The market is starting to discount rate hikes Bank of Japana relevant change for the strategies of Carry trade World markets that have relied on extremely low yen interest rates for years. The political calendar will also be relevant. The midterm elections USA Because of the relationship between Milei and Trump, they have a special meaning. The presidential elections are taking place at the same time Brazil appear as another source of risk, in this case due to the possible impact on the bilateral exchange rate with the main trading partner of Argentina.
The author is a PPI analyst
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