With $35.5 billion deposited in the financial system – a record number so far this century – banks face an unusual problem: How to mobilize this liquidity? This means convincing savers to encourage them to save Investmentsdeparting from his typical conservative stance.
Thus, in recent months, the largest banks on the market have intensified their contacts with their clients, offering them alternatives that “don’t leave your dollars standing”.
According to the instructions of the Central Bank, About $15.9 billion USD is trappedleaving approximately US$20,000 million available to go to market. It is estimated that there are loans granted amounting to about 18 thousand million dollars.
The offer that banks offer to their customers includes very conservative and low rate options, e.g Fixed deadlines -They pay a nominal annual rate of 1.25% within 30 days-, Paid accounts Which generates a return of 2% and even the possibility of investing in the new star of the capital market, which is Tradable liabilities issued by Argentine companies.
Therefore, small savers have the possibility to participate, with amounts up to 100 US dollars, in tenders such as YPFOr Pan American Energy, John Deere, or Orange Card.
In the past two months alone, the issuance of corporate operating bonds has exceeded $3,000 million, which implies an accumulation of $8,000 million over the course of the year. A large proportion of investments in these securities are not made in the name of individuals, but indirectly through mutual funds.
According to the latest report from the chamber that collects these funds – data as of October – 8% of the total investment corresponds to operations. The amount is $5.6 billion3.9 billion US dollarsat the current exchange rate.
The appetite for dollarization subsides
Of course, most deposits are in dollars Stay in savings accounts – Those that have immediate liquidity – as their main use is usually the payment of services, the most prominent of which is Foreign tourism and purchasing products online.
In it BCRA report In the exchange market in October, Fig Demand is 5.068 million US dollars The public demands it. But the statement is always keen to emphasize this This dollar demand should not be confused with “capital flight”, given that part of this money is deposited in local accounts or is later used to cancel consumption with foreign currency cards.
The Services account, which registered a new deficit of $1,008 million, was largely attributable to tourism expenditures – $625 million – and payments for digital products – $422 million. On the income side, professionals working abroad issued invoices worth US$246 million that entered the financial system.
Will it continue? This situation of increasing dollar deposits? Economists believe that to the extent that exchange rate stability is enhanced, The trend will reverse Or at least it will stop at current levels. With no risk of devaluation on the horizon, the attractiveness of saving in pesos returns, as interest rates are expected to remain in positive territory.
“New deposits of ONs by larger companies, if there are local buyers, could also serve as an alternative to dollar-denominated deposits.”“Refers to a report from Basic life-saving condom consultations
Currently, these expectations seem to have come true: after the legislative elections in October, the largest private banks reported that there was a movement among savers selling their dollars, to the extent that the balance of retail purchases may give a negative number.
If this situation is confirmed, it will be rare and the breaking point, yet Net purchases amounted to 29.929 million US dollars This is what Argentine savers have been doing since April, when stocks allocated to buy dollars were released into the banking system.
In this panoramic picture, the big question arises in the market: Will Toto Caputo benefit from rising dollar liquidity to meet the demand for increased reserves? First of all, after I met a new one Global banks reports – Potential buyers of Argentine debt securities – on the need for BCRA to strengthen its position.
Caputo looks askance at the dollars
In the midst of the debate over whether this purchase would lead to inflation, another issue was added to the discussion: it was Accusations Than it is He got his hands on the lace dollars – That is, for savers’ dollars – in exchange for canceling Bobrial in the amount of 1.012 million US dollars. These are dollar-denominated bonds, which were issued at the beginning of the government to help importers cancel their financial debts.
It was a fact that exacerbated the controversy around it What position will Kabuto take? Given the prospects Delayed access to the international credit marketwhile the repayment schedule does not give any leeway – in January there is a large maturity period of more than 4000 million US dollars.
In fact, the current discussion includes the possibility of issuing new bonds, also “hard dollars,” so that local investors can dispose of the liquidity currently in the banks.
In recent tenders, this type of issuance was intended for external investors only, while bonds were issued in the local market in exchange-adjustable pesos to those who demanded coverage for fear of currency depreciation.
An economic expert close to the government. Federico DominguezHe suggested that Poprial’s scheme could be copied – which was the impetus for its existence Apply to pay taxes– As a means of helping the treasury obtain dollars without having to issue pesos.
“In this way, the risk of default is eliminated and the interest rate falls. For example, bonds could be issued maturing in 2031, and apply to pay taxes starting in 2029. In the context of fiscal surplus, it makes senseDominguez argues.
Proposal for “National Bonus”
Another proposal that has attracted the attention of experts is the Lucas Lachformer BCRA vice president during the Macrista administration, argues that a portion of the banking system’s dollars would be attractive in dollar bonds paying an interest rate of 8%. Economic Suggest a “national reward” It is assumed that those who have the ability to save and support the Miley government will participate voluntarily.
“You can put some candy in it. Example: They can be used to pay taxes assessed in MEP dollars at a dollar price that simply follows the price at which they were issued, regardless of market value.. (It seems to me that because of arbitrage this ensures that if it is issued at 8% interest it rises to 8% every year),” Lash explains.
The pessimistic responses were immediate. Former Minister Hernan Lacunza “Regardless of whether it is a good or bad idea, the words ‘reward’ and ‘homeland’ do not go together,” he reminded him.
In the same sense, Carlos Rodriguezformer Dean of Uusimaa University and former Deputy Minister of Economy, accuses his colleague of The desire to recycle forced savings implemented in 1988, During the reign of Raul Alfonsin.
The prevailing view among financial executives is that these proposals are the ultimate end-all They will end up becoming realityBut not through bonds obtained by small savers, but rather through treasury deposits obtained by the banks themselves.
“The banks will be able Go to the bidding using those dollar deposits That they have. People’s participation will be marginal (whoever wants the rewards already has them). “In the same way that banks were the biggest demanders of dollar debt, they will demand hard dollar bonds from the Treasury,” says one of the market’s most preachy executives.
From this point of view, the important thing will not be who lends the dollars to Caputo, But those invoices must remain deposited In the system, without another major withdrawal by savers.