BBC analysis shows the number of deaths of Russian soldiers in Ukraine has increased at a record pace since the start of the war

If anything, it may be an indication of how the intensity of fighting changes over time.

The year 2025 began in January with a relatively low number of published obituaries compared to previous months. The number rose in February when Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin spoke directly for the first time about ending the war in Ukraine.

The next highlight in August coincides with the meeting of the two presidents in Alaska, a diplomatic success for Putin that was widely seen as the end of his international isolation.

In October, when a planned second summit between Russia and the United States was finally canceled, and then in November, when the United States presented a 28-point peace proposal, an average of 322 obituaries were published per day, twice the 2024 average.

It is difficult to attribute Russia’s increase in losses to a single factor, but the Kremlin sees territorial gains as a way to sway negotiations with the US in its favor: Putin’s adviser Yuri Ushakov recently stressed that “recent successes” have had a positive impact.

Murat Mukashev was one of those who opted for a quick peace agreement, and it cost him his life. He was an activist who never supported Vladimir Putin’s policies.

Over the years, he had taken part in demonstrations against police violence and torture and joined rallies for LGBT rights and the release of Alexei Navalny, the Kremlin’s main opponent who died in prison in 2024.

Since 2022, he has repeatedly condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine on social media. In early 2024, Mukashev was arrested near his home in Moscow and charged with large-scale drug trafficking.

While his case was being heard, he was offered a contract with the Department of Defense, according to his friends and family.

They viewed the serious allegations against him as a common tactic to coerce people into recruiting. A 2024 law will allow defendants to avoid criminal conviction if they go to war, an attractive option in a country with an acquittal rate of less than 1%.

Mukashev rejected the offer and the court sentenced him to ten years in a high-security penal colony.

While in prison, he changed his mind in November 2024. Friends said Trump’s promises to end the war quickly emboldened him and decided he needed to work for his release as quickly as possible before a peace deal was reached.

“He saw this as an opportunity to be released instead of being imprisoned for 10 years under a strict regime,” his support group said in a statement.

How he reconciled his participation in the war with his stated aversion to killing was not explained.

On June 11, 2025, Mukashev was killed in combat as part of an assault squad in the Kharkiv region of northeastern Ukraine.

Like him, the majority of Russians killed on the front lines in 2025 had no connection to the army at the start of the all-out war, BBC figures show.

But since the bloody battle for the city of Avdiivka in October 2023, the number of victims among the so-called “volunteers” has risen steadily.

Those who have volunteered since the start of the invasion appear to make up the majority of new Russian recruits, as opposed to professional soldiers who joined the army before the invasion or were mobilized for military service afterward.

A year ago, 15% of Russian military deaths were volunteers, but in 2025 that proportion will be one in three.

Local governments, under pressure to maintain a steady flow of new employees, are offering big payouts, targeting people with heavy debts and running campaigns at universities and vocational training centers.

This allowed the Kremlin to offset heavy losses at the front while avoiding the politically risky move of large-scale forced mobilization.

According to National Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev, 336,000 people enlisted in the army between January and October, more than 30,000 per month.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has stated that 25,000 Russian soldiers die every month. If both numbers are correct, Russia continues to recruit more soldiers than it loses.

According to obituaries and family statements, most of those who enlisted to fight did so voluntarily. However, there are reports of pressure and coercion, particularly against regular recruits and those accused of crimes.

Some recruits mistakenly believe that after a year of service they can return to their old lives with money in their pockets.

A new recruit can earn up to 10 million rubles (about $128,000) per year.

In fact, all contracts signed with the Ministry of Defense from September 2022 will automatically be extended until the end of the war.

According to NATO figures, the total number of Russian dead and wounded in the war is 1.1 million, and one official estimates there were 250,000 dead.

This is consistent with BBC estimates, although our list does not include the killed militiamen in two occupied regions in eastern Ukraine, which we estimate to be between 21,000 and 23,500 fighters.

Ukraine also suffered heavy losses.

Last February, President Volodymyr Zelensky put the number of battlefield deaths at 46,000 and the number of wounded at 380,000.

Tens of thousands more are missing or held captive, he added.

Based on other estimates and data comparisons, we estimate that the number of Ukrainians killed so far is 140,000.

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