The Casa Rosada concludes the round of dialogue with the governors, understanding that they are key to political negotiations and the functioning of Congress. The provinces are geographically divided into three groups. On the one hand, the ten that make up the “Great North”: Salta, Santiago del Estero, Catamarca, La Rioja, Jujuy, Formosa, Chaco, Misiones, Corrientes and Tucumán. They have a certain institutional organization that allows them to make collective statements, but politically they define themselves individually.
At the other end of the country lie the six provinces of the Patagonia region: La Pampa, Río Negro, Neuquén, Chubut, Santa Cruz and Tierra del Fuego. They gain cohesion in the development of hydrocarbons and natural resources, but also maintain special interests.
There is also the central region, whose provinces are characterized by the so-called “productive strip”, whose axis is agriculture: Santa Fe and Córdoba join Entre Ríos, Mendoza and San Luis; On the one hand, San Juan integrates the central region, although it has characteristics of the larger north, which it does not integrate. From this group, the United Provinces sector emerged in the last election, which failed in the last election.
The city of Buenos Aires and the province would form a fourth region on their own, but it could be the AMBA, consisting of the federal capital and Greater Buenos Aires, a predominantly urban region, while the interior of the province shares the interests and characteristics of the productive area.
However, this geographical and geopolitical orientation overlaps with another political orientation that has weakened. On the one hand, the majority of governors are still Peronists, but at the other end are those of Formosa, La Rioja, Buenos Aires and Tierra del Fuego, who have the greatest relationship and affinity with former Vice President Cristina Kirchner. In the north of the country, however, there are those from Salta, Jujuy, Catamarca, Tucumán and Misiones who are closest to the government and are making the most progress in negotiations with it. They could form their own provincial bloc, which would be projected across the two houses of Congress.
The first two have a good relationship with Sergio Massa, although they maintained dialogue and agreement with him in the first part of Milei’s government. The Peronism of Córdoba traditionally occupies a special position, always far removed from Kirchnerism. Mendoza, who is an ally of the libertarians, and Corrientes, who was a member of the United Provinces group, remain away from radicalism.
The Patagonians have the majority of governors elected by the PRO, but in reality they operate as provincial political parties. This is the case of Santa Cruz, Chubut and Río Negro, the latter being of Peronist origin. The Peronist governor of La Pampa wavered around Cristina but ultimately retained his independence. Neuquén maintains its historical line of provincialism. San Luis occupies a position between the PRO and La Libertad Avanza, while San Juan is Peronist and relatively independent. It is not easy to compose a picture for the Casa Rosada.
What the governors demand
The immediate issues facing the gubernatorial election were the change in ATN distribution and participation in the fuel tax. This is what they hope for from their support for the approval of the budget. As we have seen, there is a fragile and even contradictory unity between the governors, but on certain issues they agree.
The executive branch is then stronger in both chambers of Congress, but does not have a majority in either. It improves your negotiation skills, but you have to practice it. Milei’s challenge will be to show that he is able to balance his goals with those of the governors, which are the same as in his first two years in office.
The influence of governors is now decreasing in both chambers of Congress, albeit with restrictions and ambiguities. As for MPs, neither the ruling party nor the opposition are able to form blocs that would allow them to achieve their own majority, which requires 1,129 MPs. Together with the deputies of La Libertad Avanza, part of the PRO, some radicals and splinters of the ruling party itself, the ruling party reaches almost 95 national deputies. The Fuerza Patria bloc, in turn, which unites Peronism for the time being, has almost the same number, but this number is decreasing as there are general Kirchnerist divisions.
In the Senate the situation is reversed. Peronism is suffering from emigration, which is causing its Chamber of Deputies to shrink to around thirty members. In return, La Libertad Avanza would approach the 24 legislators together with the PRO, radicals and independents. That is, in this chamber Peronism could be the first minority, but losing the absolute majority and the national ruling party, on the other hand, could become the second minority.
This panorama forces negotiations and gives legislators who do not agree in either bloc the opportunity to be in the organizing phase, and in this the governors will play a key role.
About The Author
