Bolsonaro allies say Quaest’s research gives more impetus to Flávio’s candidacy

The part of the investigation considered by the interlocutors as the turning point is the scenario of a second round between the senator and the current president. Lula appears with 46% of voting intentions, against 36% for Flávio Bolsonaro. The data began to be treated by allies as a symbolic step for the pre-candidacy – a sort of permission for him to stop being just “the son” and start being seen as a real candidate.

The most intense reaction did not come from the ten-point gap in favor of Lula, considered smaller than expected, but from the internal comparison that the survey allows. In the same survey, Lula appears with 45% against 35% for the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), who until now has been identified as the most competitive name on the right against the PT member.

Flávio’s performance, numerically superior to that of Tarcísio, was interpreted by the Bolsonaristas as a fact that reorganized the internal debate on succession and electoral viability. In the senator’s closest wing, it is believed that the numbers aligned with the governor’s speech that he wants to run for re-election could confirm the scenario.

According to PL leaders and close allies of the Bolsonaro family, Quaest is changing the “psychological climate” of the pre-campaign. Until now, the bet on Flávio was mainly considered as a defensive strategy, aimed at maintaining control of Bolsonarism in the face of the arrest of Jair Bolsonaro. From the research the reading becomes different: Flávio can achieve viability.

Behind the scenes, the assessment is that the investigation offers something the senator lacked, the minimum political support to support his candidacy speech. One leader says the research functions as a “green light” for Flávio to start behaving publicly as a candidate, intensifying his programs and competing for space with other right-wing names.

The senator himself attempted to explore this interpretation. In a statement after the survey was published, Flávio said the figures reflect a recent movement within Bolsonarism.

— Research is beginning to capture the wave that has emerged in recent days. But they are still far from giving a global vision of the problem,” he said.

For this group, the study also strengthens the Bolsonaro family’s position in internal negotiations with the center and with sectors of the business world that were advocating an alternative right-wing candidacy, outside of the Bolsonaro core.