The news that former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) has chosen his eldest son, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ), as his candidate for the presidency in 2026 frustrates the plans of many Tarcisio de Freitas (Republicans) allies who were looking to succeed him in the São Paulo government, if the governor is the one chosen to compete for the Palacio do Planalto.
Before the announcement, Tarcisio was seen as the “balance” to a series of definitions of the 2026 electoral chess, both in São Paulo and at the national level. This is because, amid speculation about the future of the São Paulo president, a dispute has been unfolding behind the scenes between his main allies over which candidate the governor supports will be his successor.
The main candidates were Metropolitan Mayor Ricardo Nunes (MDB); President of the Legislative Assembly (Alesp), André do Prado (PL); Federal MP and former Secretary of Public Security, Guilherme Diret (PP); and Deputy Governor Felicio Ramuth (PSD). The national head of the Public Security Directorate, Gilberto Kassab, Tarcisio’s current secretary of government, was also named.
Former environment minister in Bolsonaro’s government, federal MP Ricardo Salles (Novo) is another who has stated that he will be a candidate for the São Paulo government without Tarcisio in the race. If the governor does decide to run for re-election, Salles says he will run for Senate.
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Tarcisio has already been warned that Bolsonaro has chosen Flavio as his candidate
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“He is a brother, and he will always have my support,” Carlos Bolsonaro says of Flavio.
In recent weeks, the governor of São Paulo has been adopting a nationalist rhetoric, for example entering the public discussion on security and repeatedly criticizing Lula’s government. At an event targeting business leaders last month, the Republican said it was necessary to “remove the CEO” of Brazil.
Although some allies of the São Paulo governor still regard Flavio’s announcement as a “test balloon”, the confirmation made by the senator himself and the national president of the Liberal Party, Waldemar Costa Neto, regarding the candidacy of Bolsonaro’s son 01, means that Tarcisio is practically excluded from the national race. At least at this moment.
to CapitalsFlavio even mentioned that he spoke to Tarcisio before announcing his candidacy on Friday morning (12/5) and said that the governor mentioned that he could count on him “for anything that happens.”
Surprise among the allies
- News of Flavio’s selection as candidate surprised some of Tarcisio’s allies, as part of the governor’s entourage was still hoping that he would be Bolsonaro’s candidate to represent the group in the conflict against Lula in 2026.
- After Flavio himself announced that he would be the candidate, allies of the Bolsonaro and Tarcisio family, who were consulted by the report, stated that they learned of the news through the press.
- Despite the “surprise”, the assessment of some is that although Tarcisio never left the race, there was always the impression that the former president would decide that the vice-presidential candidate would continue with someone from the Bolsonaro clan.
- According to a close ally of the governor, if Tarcisio is selected, the reading is that the announcement will not be made until the beginning of 2026, on the eve of the deadline for eliminating the position, in April.
- Moreover, according to this reading, announcing at this moment that Tarcisio would be the candidate for Planalto would only increase the attacks against him, putting the governor of São Paulo in the PT’s crosshairs.
- Flavio Bolsonaro, according to the group’s interlocutors, needs to start building his candidacy sooner and travel around the country. In this sense, the anticipation of choosing his name gives him time to begin the preliminary campaign.
Effects on the left
In addition to allies, Tarcisio’s stay in São Paulo also has a direct impact on leftist strategies in the state. With the governor considered the most likely candidate for re-election, the Workers’ Party must bet on a name capable of taking the dispute to at least the second round, with the main goal of giving Lula a strong platform in the country’s largest electoral college.
In this scenario, the name of the Minister of Finance and former Mayor of the capital Fernando Haddad (PT) appears. Haddad, well known to voters and with a “recall” from the last election – where the PT member lost to Tarcisio in the second round – is considered a “mission fulfiller” within the PT and would accept the job, even with a high chance of defeat, if it was at Lula’s request.
If Tarcisio had been excluded from the conflict in Sao Paulo, the scenario would have been different. In it, PT members cite Vice President Geraldo Alckmin (PSB) as someone with a real chance of winning. Alckmin, a former governor and well-known among voters in São Paulo, will have a chance to compete for the votes of the conservative part from within and could threaten the favoritism of the group linked to Tarcisio, according to his allies.
Another potential candidate on the left is former governor and Minister of Entrepreneurship, Marcio França (PSB), the only one who has actually presented himself as a prior candidate.
Until then, the left’s main bet was that Tarcisio would become president of the republic and that the candidate for the government of São Paulo would be the mayor of the capital, Ricardo Nunes. Now there is a tendency for the opposition to begin scrutinizing domestic issues related to the governor, with attacks focusing on his administration in São Paulo.