The chemistry between Presidents Lula (PT) and Donald Trump should not prevent the United States from attempting to interfere in the 2026 Brazilian elections, in the same way it intervened in the elections in Argentina and Honduras, according to the Brazilian government.
In the view of a senior Lula government official, by removing most tariffs on Brazilian goods and Magnitsky sanctions, Trump may have just made a tactical retreat from the ill-fated attempt to prevent the arrest of former President Jair Bolsonaro.
But Brazil is counting on the possibility that Trump will use the same strategy adopted this year in elections in Argentina and Honduras. During Argentina’s legislative elections, Trump made the granting of $20 billion in financial aid to the country conditional on the good electoral performance of Milei’s party.
During Honduras’ presidential election, Trump openly supported far-right candidate Nasry “Tito” Asfura, and the country’s president, leftist Xiomara Castro, claimed there was an “electoral coup” due to “interference by the president of the United States.”
Before the election, Trump declared that the government’s candidate, Rixi Moncada, was a communist and that her victory would deliver the country to Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro and his “narcoterrorists.” On the eve of the election, Trump pardoned former Honduras President Juan Orlando Hernández, an ally of Asfura, who was sentenced to 45 years in prison for trafficking cocaine to the United States.
Almost a month after the elections, there are still no results. Asfura leads by a small margin over conservative Salvador Nasralla, and a special count is underway. Last week, the State Department revoked one visa and revoked another for two Honduran election officials belonging to Xiomara Castro’s left-wing party, alleging they were interfering with vote counting.
The Brazilian government believes it needs certain “vaccines” against possible American intervention. One of them is the recently announced cooperation with the United States in the fight against transnational crime.
Trump has used the fight against drug trafficking to justify his attacks on ships in the Caribbean and his military threats against Venezuela. Cooperation has also been used preemptively to block attempts by Bolsonaro supporters to seek U.S. intervention in Brazil to combat organized crime.
The government believes that the international agenda will have unprecedented weight in the Brazilian presidential election. The impression is that Trump will openly support whoever becomes the right-wing candidate, an ideology more aligned with that of the current US government.
Regarding Venezuela, the Brazilian government is attentive, during the break, to the possibility of American military intervention. And officials admit that the U.S. government is not open to a greater role for Brazil or other countries in conversations with Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro.
But preventing military action in Venezuela is considered the Brazilian government’s top priority. If an action is taken under the pretext of fighting drug trafficking, this could become a precedent. According to the government, this pretext could be used in future interventions in countries like Colombia and Mexico, for example.
Bilaterally, Brazil and the United States are still negotiating to remove remaining tariffs on Brazilian products and to reinstate the revoked visas of Brazilian ministers and their families. A meeting between ministers was planned for November, but is not expected to take place until January.
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