Brazil calms political crisis and resists Trump’s tariffs

The year 2025 saw the imposition of high tariffs by the United States on products imported from dozens of countries, including Brazilian products. President Donald Trump justified the measure against Brazil with political allegations, notably to defend former President Jair Bolsonaro, then accused before the Federal Supreme Court (STF), and currently convicted of attempted coup d’état. Tariffs have reached 50% on some products, including beef, coffee, fruits, vegetables, minerals, steel and aluminum.

At Metropolises, Experts say the 2025 tariff saga has provided important lessons for the conduct of North American trade policy.

The tariffs imposed by the Trump administration mainly affected Brazilian sectors linked to the agri-food and metallurgical industries, according to Professor Hugo Garbe of the Universidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie. “The immediate impact was a drop in exports, a reduction in margins and inactivity of industrial plants. In the medium term, there was a reorientation of sales towards other markets, a drop in prices and an increase in financing costs due to greater regulatory uncertainty,” explained the expert.

Mônica Araújo, chief economist of InvestSmart XP, highlighted that “even countries with little trade openness, such as Brazil, suffered from the implementation of high customs duties, whose justification, in the Brazilian case, went beyond trade issues and considered mainly political issues.”

Finally, the White House has shown itself to be sensitive to domestic pressures in the United States, adjusting prices according to the cost of living and presidential popularity.

Additionally, Trump’s decisions, such as imposing tariffs and threats, are often pressure tactics rather than permanent goals. For the economist, even with the flexibility obtained, the unpredictability of North American politics keeps the global trade scenario under constant attention.

4 picturesClose the modal.1 of 4 Andrew Harnik/Getty Images2 of 4 Andrew Harnik/Getty Images3 of 4 Andrew Harnik/Getty Images4 of 4Ricardo Stuckert/PR

Start of the trade conflict with the United States

Customs duties imposed by the Trump administration on Brazilian products officially started on August 6, 2025marking the culmination of a year-long trade escalation that blended economics and politics.
The measure raised the import rate to 50% on Brazilian products not included in the long list of exemptions, which covered 694 products.
The escalation began in February, with customs duties of 25% on iron and steel, followed by a reciprocal duty of 10% applied in April, and an increase to 50% on the same sector in May.
Trump justified the surcharges as protecting local industry and responding to Brazilian policy deemed “unfavorable”while political actions, such as the suspension of visas of STF ministers and sanctions under the Magnitsky Act against Alexander de Moraes, expanded the diplomatic and political character of the conflict.
The impact was felt mainly in the agribusiness, metals, coffee, fruit and footwear sectors, putting pressure on Brasilia to seek dialogue and support measures without resorting to direct retaliation.

Partial relaxation and diplomatic negotiations

In November, the Republican signed a decree reducing part of the customs duties on Brazilian agricultural products. With this decision, customs duties of 40% on fresh, chilled or frozen beef, cocoa and coffee products, fruits, vegetables, nuts and fertilizers were reduced to zero – following only the standard 10% duty adopted in all countries.

At the time, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin said that “the next step is to reduce tariffs that affect the industrial sector.” Chancellor Mauro Vieira confirmed that Brazil had presented a “general proposal” to the United States on tariffs and hoped the preliminary negotiations would serve as a basis for broader agreements in the coming months. “We have to wait for them to react,” Vieira said.

According to Planalto, the White House assessed that there was “first progress” in the negotiations, which began after a call between Lula and Trump in October, which opened the way for the revision of the punitive measure.

Relationship between Lula and Trump

In early December, Lula spoke – again – for about 40 minutes with Trump. The Brazilian president thanked the partial removal of customs duties and stressed the importance of moving forward in the negotiations. He also requested American cooperation in combating international organized crime. Planalto said Trump had demonstrated a “complete willingness” to work with Brazil and support joint actions between the two countries.

The North American leader, who on several occasions, after all the turbulence of the relationship, was keen to emphasize the “chemistry” between him and the PT member, emphasized once again that he “loves Lula very much”.

Professor Hugo Garbe emphasizes that the United States uses customs duties as “an instrument of pressure and negotiation”. “Brazil, in turn, must protect jobs, exports and agro-industry income. The sum of these interests has led to the opening of a channel of dialogue.”

The international press highlighted that Brazil managed to partially reverse Donald Trump’s tariff offensive, demonstrating that a firm stance can influence negotiations and that it is necessary to differentiate the tactics and objectives of American policy.

“After the initial shock, the two governments began to negotiate partial reductions in customs duties and broadened the agenda to topics such as trade, security and regional stability,” said the expert.

Next steps for 2026

Planalto expects a new round of negotiations with the United States in January 2026, with the hope of breaking the trade impasse by the end of the first half. At the same time, Lula seeks to expand international partnerships:

FEBRUARY: trip to India for a state visit and negotiations on the opening of the Indian market and cooperation in the digitalization of public services.
April: participation in Hannover Messe, in Germany, to open new markets for biofuels.
June: possible travel to France for the G7, depending on the commercial situation with the USA and the European Union.
November: G20 meeting in the United States.

Brazilian importers affected by the tariffs can request a refund of duties unduly imposed since the new rule took effect. The measure aims to ease pressure on export chains and contain unwanted effects on the US market.

Finally, Mônica Araújo believes that “even with the maintenance of current customs tariffs for Brazil, no significant impact is expected for the Brazilian economy in 2026, given that there has already been a reallocation of part of the products to other markets and a partial removal of tariffs for several sectors”.