The Central Bank’s economic activity index (IBC-Br) fell by 0.25% in October compared to September, as announced this Monday (15) by the Central Bank (BC). In September, the indicator fell by 0.19% (data revised for a decrease of 0.24%).
The October result was below the median of estimates collected by the Value dateup 0.20%. However, the data was within the range of projections, which varied between a decrease of 0.5% and an increase of 0.5%.
In the quarter ended October, the decline was 0.21% compared to the previous quarter. Compared to the same month last year, there was an increase of 0.38%.
In the 12 months ended October, the indicator showed an increase of 2.52%. Due to constant revisions, the 12-month cumulative indicator is more stable than the monthly measure. Over the year, the variation was 2.41%.
Finally, as a quarterly moving average, used to capture trends, the IBC-Br fell 0.02% compared to the three months ended in September.
The IBC-Br has a different calculation methodology from the national accounts calculated by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The BC indicator, with a monthly frequency, allows more frequent monitoring of the evolution of economic activity, while the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), with a quarterly frequency, describes a more complete picture of the economy.
The Central Bank also published the sectoral openings of the indicator. The IBC-Br Agropecuária increased by 3.07% in October compared to September. The indicator recorded declines in other openings. IBC-Br Indústria fell 0.74%; the IBC-Br Serviços fell by 0.23%, the IBC-Br Taxes fell by 0.39% and the IBC-Br Ex-Agropecuária fell by 0.31%.
According to the BC, due to methodological differences, the differences between the IBC-Br and IBGE national accounts should be greater in terms of sectoral openings than in terms of aggregates.
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