The European Commission warned this Monday that the signing of the free trade agreement that it negotiated last year on behalf of the European Union with the Mercosur countries (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay) is “vital” for the economy, diplomacy and geopolitics of the community bloc; They therefore insist on the urgency that the calendar be maintained and signed before the end of this year, ignoring France’s request that it be postponed to a later date.
“Although it is for the Council to decide on the next steps, in the Commission’s view the signing of the agreement is now a matter of crucial economic, diplomatic and geopolitical importance,” the Community’s trade policy spokesman, Olof Gill, told a press conference in Brussels, stressing the importance of the bloc being perceived by its international partners as a “reliable” trading partner.
Therefore, the Community executive maintains its expectation that the EU-Mercosur agreement can be signed “before the end of 2025”, although this process depends on completing the outstanding steps for its adoption in the Council (Governments), including a vote requiring a qualified majority of the 27 votes to move forward. With the approval of governments, the agreement could enter into provisional force as early as early 2026, without having to wait for the necessary opinion from the European Parliament for its final ratification, which will take more time.
The current EU Council Presidency, which Denmark holds this semester, maintains the goal of presenting this vote to EU ambassadors this week. However, this will first depend on whether the protection measures offered by the European Commission to compensate the farmers who may be most at risk pass a further vote this Tuesday in the plenary session of the European Parliament, so that the formal approval of this support is also possible by the Twenty-Seven.
If this first step is adopted on Tuesday, member states and the European Parliament could agree on the final green light for these protection measures a day later. This would pave the way for the ambassadors of the 27 to adopt the decision allowing European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, accompanied by European Council President António Costa, to travel to Brazil and sign the agreement in a ceremony on Saturday on the sidelines of the Mercosur summit.
REJECTION FROM FRANCE
France, which has traditionally been strongly opposed to the trade pact for fear of its impact on its agricultural sector and has also in recent years placed higher demands on Mercosur in the fight against deforestation and climate change, reiterated this weekend that it believes “the conditions are not yet met” for the EU to give the green light and called for a new delay.
The French opposition collides directly with other countries such as Germany and Spain, which insist on the possibility of a “critical” agreement for the European economy and essential for the new multilateral balances; From the Southern Cone, however, they warn that if this opportunity is missed, they will no longer wait and will seek equivalent agreements with other major economies in the world.
“France calls for a postponement of the deadlines so that we can continue working to achieve legitimate protection measures for our European agriculture,” French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu warned in an official statement released on Sunday.
However, Emmanuel Macron’s government cannot stop the adoption of the agreement on its own, since it depends solely on a qualified majority of the partners (at least 15 countries, representing 65% of the EU population) and has so far failed to add enough reserves to create a blocking minority, despite the reservations of Poland and Italy and the doubts of other countries such as Austria or Belgium about the obligation to abstain due to the lack of internal agreement on the country’s position.
In this case, Giorgia Meloni’s government could be decisive in shifting the balance from qualified majority to blocking minority and vice versa, but although Rome gave signs months ago of accepting the protection measures on the table, doubts are re-emerging in the face of protests in the countryside and the question in Brussels remains what their position will be when the vote finally takes place this week, although diplomatic sources indicate that constant negotiations are underway at all levels to resolve the latest transalpine requests.
All this in a difficult week for the European Union, with a massive demonstration by the agricultural sector of all the countries of the Union called next Thursday in Brussels to protest against the cuts announced for the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) in the next budget after 2027. On the same Thursday, EU leaders will also meet for their traditional December summit in the same European capital, with Ukraine and the European budget at the center of their agenda.
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