By saluting Lula, Trump leaves Brazil’s right without a father

The political scene is going through a curious moment. By publicly winking at President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Donald Trump appears to be initiating a movement away from Bolsonarism, which for years was his main reference for political affinity in the country. In recent days, signs of rapprochement between the two leaders have begun to circulate forcefully, notably Lula’s statement that the withdrawal of the application of the Magnitsky law against the Minister of the STF, Alexandre de Moraes, would have been the result of a direct conversation with the North American president.

Behind the scenes, we read that there was “alchemy” between Trump and Lula, which could indicate a greater rapprochement between the two countries through their presidents. This is not, at least for now, a consolidated alliance, but rather gestures that break the expectation of automatic antagonism between Trump and the current Brazilian government. Like any diplomatic approach, the real significance of this wink can only be understood over time.

Meanwhile, those who seem to have been taken by surprise are the Bolsonarist right. For this group, Trump was almost seen as an extension of Jair Bolsonaro on the international stage (or Bolsonaro would be the “Brazilian Trump”). However, the recent position of the American president shows more and more clearly that Trump is Trump and that Bolsonaro is Bolsonaro. Even with ideological affinities, the two have never been in exactly the same political project.

This moment could represent a turning point for part of the Bolsonarist base. Even if the majority must remain loyal to the Bolsonaro clan, whatever the context, one party may interpret the rapprochement with Lula as a sign of Trump weariness with regard to Bolsonaro. In other words, Bolsonaro’s loyal base must remain loyal, but another group might see the situation as a sign of distancing themselves from the Bolsonaro clan. At present, the predominant feeling among Bolsonaristas is one of disbelief, even betrayal. What will emerge from this internal upheaval within the Brazilian right, however, is something that only time can reveal.