The main institutions are already publishing their forecasts for 2026. But before looking to the future, It’s time to check whether this year’s have been respected. The expectations launched at the end of 2024 by banks, managers and analysts have guided a large part of the investment decisions over the last twelve months. How successful were they?
The forecasts were mainly divided into two large blocks: the allocation by asset classes (shares, bonds and cash) and the geographical vision of the different markets. In both cases, monitoring results makes it possible to draw up a clear map of successes, errors and adjustments in real time.
They understood the general principle: more shares, less liquidity
The analysis houses agreed at the start of the year on an overweighting of equities, neutrality on bonds and an underweighting of cash. The evolution of the markets ended up validating this strategy. Stocks were, once again, the most profitable asset.
MSCI All Country World Equity Index which brings together the securities of the most developed and emerging countries, increased by 18% over the year, its best annual result since 2019. Likewise, the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond index, which brings together public and global corporate debt, offers a return close to 8%.
Cash, for its part, is clearly lagging behind. Although performance varies by currency and location, average returns ranged from 3% to 5%which placed this asset as the least attractive of the year. This scenario confirmed the logic of a traditional risk-based allocation: stocks rather than bonds, and bonds rather than cash, in an economy without major shocks.
During the first half of the year, global stock markets benefited from the gradual decline in inflation in major economies and a more stable macroeconomic environment than expected. Added to this is a growing expectation of rate cuts from central banks, which has strengthened the appetite for risky assets.
In rates, moderation of yield curves allowed us to recover part of the losses accumulated in previous years. Overall, the combination of moderate economic growth, controlled inflation and less restrictive monetary policies has favored a strategy of increased exposure to stocks.
No more doubts in geographic forecasts
The analysis houses have not only offered recommendations by type of asset. Many forecast reports also included a breakdown by region, identify the markets with the greatest potential for the next twelve months. The overall picture they painted at the end of 2024 showed a clear preference for the United States, Japan and India, while retaining a more conservative view of continental Europe and an openly defensive stance towards China.
In the case of the United States, Wall Street is making progress, but with lower performance than other regions. The excessive weight of the largest technology stocks, those known as the “Magnificent Seven”, limited overall profitability, in a year when other markets, such as Spain, recorded greater rebounds.
Japan has indeed lived up to expectations. The Japanese market has maintained a constant upward trend, driven by a still expansionary monetary policy and positive flows of foreign investment. The forecasts were in line with the results and the Nikkei index rose 27%.
India was another focus of optimism in forecasts earlier this year. Several analysts agree to underline its strong growth, its role as an alternative to exposure to China and the attractiveness of its technological and industrial sectors. However, in 2025, the Indian market shows clear signs of exhaustion after several years of sustained growth. Although the BSE Sensex 30 index accumulates an increase of 5% in 2025, is below expectations.
The case of China is the one which deviates the most from predictions. The main analysis houses They recommended avoiding or underweighting the Chinese market, in a context dominated by regulatory uncertainty and slowing growth. However, the country’s main index, the SSE Composite Index, increases by 15% in 2025, supported by fiscal stimuli, increased liquidity and a selective recovery in sectors such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence.
For Europe, forecasts were more cautious. Even if the continent’s stock markets are all positive, they were below the world average, in accordance with the initial positioning of analysts. Despite this, the STOXX Europe 600 index remains at all-time highs.
Assignment yes, prediction no
The year’s results leave a mixed picture: institutions were right in the general allocation of assets, but they showed more difficulty in anticipating behavior by region. Decisions based on riskier macroeconomic principles in a favorable environment have paid off. More specific bets, particularly in Asia, paint a more uneven picture.
As reports for 2026 begin to fill inboxes, the 2025 review reinforces a key idea for investors: Forecasts can be a guide, but not a map.
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