Debt secured in debt. This is the strategy that is being studied in the Ministry of Economy to meet the financial obligation of next January 9, when around 4,344 million US dollars will have to be paid according to the Bonar and Globalcoupon restructured in 2020 under the government of Alberto Fernández. The idea is to use the $1,000 million obtained last week through the brand new Argentine government bond (Bonar) as a guarantee for the re-placement of a repurchase agreement (REPO) with international banks (mainly North American). The objective is a temporary operation, to be completed before the end of 2025 or in the first week of 2026, to raise between 1,000 and 2,000 million US dollars in order to complete the amount of foreign currencies that must be raised in order to pay on January 9 next year the 4,300 million US dollars for the Bonar and Globalcoupon issued in August 2020 as part of the debt restructuring.
So far, in the latest official financial operations, the government has managed to obtain 1,000 million from Bonar, about 800 million from the tenders for five Patagonian dams, about 300 million from year-end foreign exchange purchases and another 500 million available. To close the account and get closer to the final payment amount next year, about $2 billion would need to be raised.
The Ministry of Economy is trusted and the possible alternatives are expected to be finalized this week. And if the REPO operation does not materialize (due to the execution time and not due to trust issues among potential financiers), the always current alternative remains to activate the swap agreed with the United States and activate the lines applied to the extended facilities signed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
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Once it is clear how the remaining $3.4 billion will be raised to pay the January due date, the debate will begin over the next payment date: July 9, when another $4.2 billion must be paid for the second annual maturity of the Bonars and Globals. Then there will be a replica of 2026 in 2027. In total, Caputo will have to pay around $18 billion for these obligations. In total, the government must raise at least $17 billion in two years. The economy’s intention is to return to the voluntary debt market in 2026, but when the 600 basis point sovereign risk limit is broken and, if possible, falls below 400 basis points.
Caputo’s strategy, originally developed with JP Morgan, actually hit a technical impasse due to processing times on U.S. Treasury guarantees. Something for which there is now more time, as the window of the schedule opens for the period from January 10 to July 9, 2027. In these weeks an attempt is being made to revive the agreement with international banks, based on good compliance with Argentine regulations through debt relief for the first month of 2026, as well as the possibility of implementing a payment program now with the approval of the US Treasury. It will depend on the bureaucratic speed of the Washington government.
A radical change in official policy is also expected for the first half of 2026. The abandonment, yes or yes, of this year’s very failed strategy of not buying dollars until the currency reaches the minimum value; During this time, the Treasury was able to add dollars to its own reserves again. Then we face the July 9 expiration of more than $4 billion without having to resort to aid yet.
If all or part of Donald Trump’s money was still needed in 2026 to meet the January maturity, the mechanism could have two options. Or a simple currency swap (mechanism for exchanging pesos for dollars without registration in the monetary liabilities account) or a repurchase of bonds held by the nation-state through the Sustainability Guarantee Fund.
The important thing about the two alternatives is that, according to the official view (and the majority of market analysts), no law would be required to support the project, since, at least technically, it is not about taking on new debt, but about exchanging short maturities for long ones.
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