The Minister of Economics, Luis Caputofaces a major challenge in the first days of 2026, namely maturities of almost $4.2 billion. And although it has a range of tools to counter this, US dollar purchases have increased in recent weeks Treasure increases and approaches the specified value.
Last night in a television interview the President himself Javier Milei He dispelled doubts about this by saying: “We will pay off the debt; from the repo offer alone we have $7,000 million, so we are calm.”
The distance that Economía has to travel to ensure payment is much less. Only in the last two weeks, more precisely from December 4th to last Wednesday, in just 8 working days, the national treasure accelerated the pace of foreign exchange purchases and increased its dollar deposits Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA)from $97 million to almost $2,000 million, according to the latest weekly report from Invecq.
Specifically, the 1,962% increase in the economy’s foreign currency holdings at the central bank was due to purchases of an estimated $630 million, supplemented by (the bulk of) net disbursements from international organizations of $360 million. Inter-American Development Bank, IDB) and $910 million for the Bonares placement.
With this new level of Treasury foreign currency deposits, Caputo is barely $2.2 billion away from meeting Jan. 9 maturities. And although the purchases are celebrated, the difference is still large compared to the remaining business days for the date and amount of deposits in pesos.
But the minister has a number of tools at his disposal to ensure compliance with the requirements. “We have the $1,000 million of it (last week’s placement), almost $7,000 million that the banks have offered us as a repo, we have the two swaps so we can finally get the dollars from that side. Today, the January 9 expiration is not a problem.”Caputo said in an interview on Tuesday and assured that there could even be “a refinancing on the same day,” the minister emphasized in an interview last week.
The statement was no coincidence and gave rise to a new alternative among economists and market analysts. Some of them had already thought about it: when the state official was at the event last week IEB FoundationParticipants of the meeting assured that the dollar bonus will not be a tool that will be used only once, although they are waiting to do so.
“As far as I know, a repo with the international banks is pending for the remainder. The economic team would like the country risk to decrease a little more in order to issue another bond.”commented the sales trader IEB GroupNicolas Capella. At the aforementioned event, Caputo announced that they intend to achieve an interest rate below 9% when returning to the debt market. Finally, the target was not achieved as it remained at 9.26%, which raised questions when compared to recent results Autonomous City of Buenos Aires (CABA) And Santa Fe.
Last week, after complaints from economists across the political spectrum and from international banks, the BCRA announced a new phase of the economic stimulus program: from January 1, 2026, the bands will begin to slide due to inflation with a two-month delay and the purchase of reserves due to increased demand for money. This was a good sign for the market as country risk was reduced to 500 basis points (bp).
“The BCRA’s basic remonetization scenario envisages an increase in the monetary base from the current 4.2% to 4.8% of GDP by December 2026, which could be provided through purchases of $10 billion subject to the provision of balance of payments flows. An additional increase in money demand of 1% of GDP could raise purchases to $17 billion, subject to the provision of balance of payments flows, without creating inflationary pressures,” they pointed out in a statement from the BCRA.
However, it remains to be seen whether the intervention in the Single and Free Exchange Market (MULC) does not create pressure on the exchange rate and inflation, although the President of the BCRA, Santiago Bausilipromised that it would be surgical: the daily execution amount will be adjusted to a share of 5% of the daily volume.
“This operational flexibility is in response to the observation that the volume traded on the exchange market on a daily basis shows very significant fluctuations. For example, in recent weeks the volume has been reduced by a third, from an average of $600 million per day to an amount of around $200 million (net of repo transactions). In addition to operations in the MLC, the BCRA will be able to carry out block purchases that could otherwise affect the orderly functioning and stability of the market,” they emphasized in the Notification of the BCRA.
“In the future,” explains the Invecq report, “the accumulation of reserves will essentially depend on the evolution of money demand, a variable that is historically volatile and difficult to predict in a context of persistent exchange controls. It is possible that the government trusts that the announcement alone will accelerate the decline in sovereign risk – already around 500 points today – and allow higher external debt at lower interest rates, thus facilitating the recomposition of the country’s assets. BCRA.” The system, it says, “continues to be a dependent financial account.”
And although from January 2nd to 9th the BCRA You can purchase reserves and then purchase them from the Treasury to meet maturities. The margin is tight and Caputo has to resort to another tool to meet these requirements.
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