As if Lula had increased his advantage over the current right-wing presidential candidates, the new Genial/Quaest survey, published yesterday, shows that his main opponent in next year’s elections could be Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ), recently launched as a candidate by his imprisoned father. And this?
Applied between the 11th and 14th of this month among 2,004 respondents throughout the country, with a margin of error of two percentage points, it is the first survey without the name of Bolsonaro, the father, and with the name of his son, Flávio. The stock market closed with a sharp drop of 2.41%, at 158,557 points, and the price of the dollar increased.
Centrão, who wanted Bolsonaro’s votes to elect Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) president, panicked. As well as part of the media aligned with the candidacy of the governor of São Paulo. What can reverse this situation? Future research that contradicts Quaest’s. Or mistakes Flávio might make.
In the simulations of the second round, Flávio has 36% of voting intentions against 46% for Lula; Tarcísio and Ratinho Júnior (PSD), governor of Paraná, 35% against 45% for Lula; Ronaldo Caiado (União), governor of Goiás, 33% against 44% for Lula; and Romeu Zema (Novo), governor of Minas, 33% against 45% for Lula.
In the first round scenarios, Flávio performs best against Lula. Check it out:
Lula: 39%
Flavio: 23%
Ratinho Jr.: 13%
—
Lula: 41%
Flavio: 23%
Tariff: 10%
—
Lula: 39%
Flavio: 26%
Zema: 6%
—
Lula: 39%
Flavio: 27%
Whitewashed: 4%
Flávio’s rejection is the largest among the candidates tested by Quaest. 62% of those surveyed said they would not vote for him at all. Only 13% say they would vote for Flávio and 23% say they “could vote”. This is also why the left is salivating over the arrival of Flávio. Lula x Bolsonaro, again.
The big problem on the right is not Bolsonaro, father or son. The big problem is itself, divided, without a plan for a country capable of capturing the dreams of Brazilians and without enough votes to defeat Lula. Because the one who has the votes is Bolsonaro, the renegade. She, on the right, doesn’t have it.
Lula laughs for nothing. According to Quaest, there is a growing feeling among Brazilians that he should be up for re-election, as well as a feeling that he deserves four more years in office. For 28% of respondents, the economy has improved over the past 12 months, four percentage points more than last month’s survey.
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