The Centrão leadership is resisting the presidential claim of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ), which clashes with the group’s preference for the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans). The bloc of parties believes that the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro will not succeed in unifying the opposition. Voting intention polls also weigh against him, indicating a high rejection rate due to his surname.
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The discontent, already manifested behind the scenes, became public on Monday with the demonstration of the president of the PP, Senator Ciro Nogueira (PI). The former Minister of Civil Home in the Bolsonaro government said that the candidates with competitive potential in the bloc are those of Tarcísio and the governor of Paraná, Ratinho Junior (PSD).
— Senator Flávio is one of my best friends in public life. But politics is not done only with friendship, it is done with research, feasibility and listening to allied parties. This cannot simply be a decision of the PL, it must be constructed. It is important that we unify the entire political field of the center and the right, otherwise we will not win the elections — said Nogueira.
On Monday, Tarcísio spoke for the first time on the subject. The governor expressed his support for Flávio, even though there is still a lot of time before the presidential election:
— We will evaluate this (research) over time. I think it’s early. President Bolsonaro is a person that I respect a lot, I have always said that I would be loyal to him. This is not negotiable. Flávio will count on us. He now has a big responsibility, as he joins other big names in the opposition, like (Romeu) Zema, (Ronaldo) Caiado and Ratinho Júnior, all extremely qualified.
In an attempt to iron out the rough edges and chart a path, Flávio met with Nogueira and the presidents of União Brasil, Antonio Rueda, and PL, Valdemar Costa Neto, on Monday over dinner at his home in Brasilia. It was the sharpest gesture of articulation since Friday’s announcement of his father’s selection to take on President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in 2026.
Of the three, only Valdemar publicly supported Flávio’s candidacy. Without naming him, Rueda said on Friday that in 2026 “it will not be polarization that will build the future, but the capacity to unite our forces around a serious and responsible project.”
During the meeting, the senator intended, according to his interlocutors, to convince the party leadership that he could be competitive. In addition, he sought to quash the bad repercussions generated by the statement that there would be a “price” for renouncing the candidacy, in indirect reference to the attempt to approve an amnesty for those involved in the acts of January 8, which would also benefit his father.
The sentence, handed down two days after the announcement, was considered an error aimed at weakening a candidacy already in question.
—There’s a chance I won’t go through with it. I will negotiate. I have a price to pay for not going through with it — he said on Sunday after participating in a service in Brasilia.
Negotiations around amnesty have stalled precisely because the rapporteur, MP Paulinho da Força (Solidariedade-SP), stressed that he would not deal with unrestricted pardons, but with the reduction of sentences. As the PL only authorizes amnesty, the process is at a standstill and the President of the House, Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB), will only move forward if there is a consensus which today seems distant.
— The PL once again spoke of amnesty. From the start, I said in my report that there is no possibility of amnesty. What we have is a reduction in sentences that releases those arrested on January 8 — Paulinho said in a video posted on social networks.
On Monday, in an attempt to minimize the effect of this statement, Flávio told the newspaper Folha de S. Paulo that the candidacy is “irreversible”, that it is not “for sale” and that the last name is an advantage over Tarcísio. The senator added that he does not see the possibility of both running, because “it would be very ignorant, and ignorant is everything Tarcísio is not.” When contacted, Flávio did not speak.
The most recent figures from Datafolha, however, indicate a better situation for the governor of São Paulo. According to the institute, Lula would obtain 51% against 36% for Flávio in a possible second round, a difference of 15 percentage points. In the scenario against Tarcísio, Lula would obtain 47%, five points more than the governor, with 42%. The situation is similar in another table studied: Lula obtains 47%, while Ratinho Junior obtains 41%.
The rejection data also indicates Flávio’s difficulties. Even though he has never held a position in the Executive, a position that carries natural attrition, Flávio sees 38% of voters saying they would not vote for him. The index is lower than that of Lula (44%), but exceeds those of Ratinho (21%) and Tarcísio (20%).
Ciro Nogueira and other members of the Centrão leadership intend to avoid a possible dispersion of candidates, believing that this would favor Lula.
On Saturday, shortly after Flávio’s announcement, União Brasil vice president ACM Neto reiterated his support for Ronaldo Caiado, governor of Goiás. The former mayor of Salvador is expected to run for governor of Bahia and is participating in the opposition to Lula.
—As long as it depends on my will, it will be Caiado. But to win, this requires national construction, by listening to the different parties. It is legitimate for each party to present its name — said ACM Neto.
With the anticipation of the presidential race, the candidates have increased their travels. Caiado will appear in a national commercial for União Brasil to be released this week. In his article he focuses on the fight against organized crime and criticizes the management of the federal government, with which he has had clashes over the draft amendment to the Constitution (PEC) for public security.
In the recording, he also makes an indirect reference to Tarcísio, saying that Goiás “does not have the largest budget in the country nor the largest number of police officers”, but claims to have “a lot of courage and a firm hand against banditry”.
The subject was also explored by Romeu Zema (Novo), governor of Minas, as a campaign theme on social networks.
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