In a context dominated by fear of crime and rampant migration, Chileans will return to the polls on Sunday to elect their leader for the next four years, in an election that could mark the most extreme shift to the right since the military dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet.
The ultra-rightist José Antonio Kast enters the second round with a large lead in the voting intention polls – around 60% – in the fight against the government candidate, the communist Jeannette Jara.
Unlike four years ago, when individual freedoms and demands for structural reforms challenged Chile’s political system, this year crime has eclipsed the economy, health and education as the population’s main concerns.
Next to the list of citizens’ concerns is also the massive arrival, starting in 2019, of thousands of foreigners, especially Venezuelans. Many sectors, including the outgoing government, have linked uncontrolled migration to increased urban violence.
“Crime is something we weren’t used to at the level it exists today,” Norma Ayala, 67, retired, told the Associated Press. “And it has changed a lot, although it seems bad, with the arrival of so many foreigners.”
Ayala is among the almost two-thirds of Chileans who cite violence as their biggest fear: 63% of citizens said it is their main concern, while immigration was a cause for concern for 40% of those surveyed in the Worries of the World report, published in November by Ipsos, which collects monthly the perceptions of around 25,000 people in around 30 countries.
Although it remains one of the safest countries in Latin America, Chile has seen its homicide rate double over the past decade, from 2.32 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2015 to 6.0 in 2024.
Closed borders and mass expulsions
Throughout the campaign, Jara and Kast, founder of the Republican Party, supported measures to ease insecurity and strengthen immigration policy in the country, where foreigners make up nearly 9% of the 18.5 million population.
But they presented completely different scenarios.
Jara, who seeks to continue policies implemented by President Gabriel Boric’s government, is proposing more moderate measures to contain the migratory flow, including an official registry of the more than 330,000 undocumented migrants currently living in Chile.
In the fight against crime, he advocates the construction of more prisons, the modernization of the police and the state apparatus and the creation of specialized teams to track down and eliminate the money of illicit origin which fuels criminal organizations.
In view of the second round, Jara toughened his speech and defended the expulsion of foreigners who do not register or who have committed crimes in Chile. He also did not rule out declaring a state of emergency “if necessary”, in a move to convince the political center, which demands more energetic measures in the face of the wave of insecurity.
Kast, in turn, promises to establish an authoritarian government modeled on President Nayib Bukele, whose megaprison in El Salvador he even visited.
His government plan also includes measures such as building detention and expulsion centers for migrants, installing walls, fences and ditches at the border and giving security forces greater power to act. “Those who attempt to enter violently or disobey orders will be confined according to strict protocols,” its program warns.
Economic proposals to restore the country
Kast promised to boost investment, reduce bureaucratic obstacles and improve conditions for job creation. His government plan also plans to cut spending by around $6 billion to reduce the size of government and lighten the budget.
Jara, in turn, proposes an economy that combines growth with social protection, increased productivity and strengthening formal work. To this end, he focused his proposals on maintaining and expanding certain advantages obtained under the Boric government.
Among them, it is worth highlighting the minimum wage of approximately $815 per month, the limitation of systematic adjustments in the areas of health and education and the reduction of electricity bills.
The first round of elections was marked by a high degree of polarization and conflict between the extremes of the political spectrum, something that had not happened since the country’s redemocratization in 1990.
These presidential elections are also taking place in a context where, for the first time, voting is completely compulsory.
According to the latest surveys carried out before the start of the period of electoral silence, the percentage of voters declaring that they have not made a decision on their vote or intending to vote invalid or blank varies between 17% and 20% – a figure also high due to the disenchantment of an electorate which is not satisfied with more extreme positions.
“Neither candidate, at least for me, represents me, and I feel like for a lot of people, they don’t represent me either,” visual artist Gonzalo Medel told the AP. “In the end, it’s always the same thing: we vote for the lesser evil.”
To try to conquer this part of the electorate, Jara and Kast moderated their speeches and integrated the proposals of other candidates, notably in a nod to the voters of the economist Franco Parisi, who finished the first round in third place, with almost 20% of the votes.
Its voters are diverse and difficult to classify: they range from young people suspicious of institutions to workers and businessmen, including those who are dissatisfied with the political class and those who do not feel represented by anyone. The group thus became a valuable electoral asset contested by Jara and Kast.
“Both candidates are trying not to define themselves too much on issues that could take away votes,” political scientist Claudia Heiss of the University of Chile told the AP. “They tried to hide elements that could be perceived as harmful to these undecided votes,” he added.
Jara gambled on the need to distance herself further from her communist party and announced that she would leave the party if elected. He also incorporated proposals from other candidates, such as the return of value-added tax on medicines and financial incentives for young people.
Kast, in turn, a lawyer opposed to abortion and marriage equality, took a more conciliatory tone and said that, in a possible government, “no vested right will be taken away.”
Furthermore, in recent days, he stressed that he would welcome “all those who want to support the ideas of freedom”.
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