China’s annual trade surplus surpassed $1 trillion for the first time as exports recovered in November from the previous month’s sharp decline, despite a continued sharp decline in trade with the United States.
In the first 11 months of the year, China’s total exports rose 5.4% compared to the same period in 2023, while imports fell 0.6%, resulting in a surplus of $1.07 trillion, according to official data released Monday. The volume already exceeds last year’s record $992 billion, according to Trade Data Monitor.
In November, overseas remittances rose 5.9% in dollar terms year-on-year, driven by demand from Southeast Asia and Europe. This result contrasts with the 1.1% contraction recorded in October and exceeds the 2.5% growth forecast in a Reuters survey.
Dollar-denominated imports rose 1.9%, below the 4% estimated in the Reuters survey.
“The monthly data is very volatile, with unusually low numbers in October and unusually high numbers in September,” said Lu Ting, managing director and chief China economist at Nomura. “Isolated oscillations should not be overanalyzed.”
Exports to the United States fell 28%, the eighth consecutive monthly decline, surpassing the 25% drop recorded in October. That decline persisted even after Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump met in South Korea in late October and agreed to extend the tariff truce, which includes a reduction in U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods. The two leaders reaffirmed their understanding during a telephone call on November 24, signaling their interest in stabilizing bilateral relations.
Despite tensions with Washington throughout the year, exports remain an important driver of the Chinese economy, at a time when household consumption remains weak due to the prolonged crisis in the real estate sector.
“Overall, China’s export growth remains relatively stable,” Lu said. “This resilience supports our projection of growth of around 4% next year – a slight slowdown, but still above the global average. »
The economist added that performance forecasts for 2026 will continue to be supported by the country’s strong industrial capacity, although they could lose steam due to increasing trade barriers imposed not only by the United States, but also increasingly by Europe.
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