The state issued a dollar bond under national law with a maturity of four years and an interest rate of 9.25% annually for 1,000 million US dollars. The last tender for notes and bonds in pesos for 2025 was carried out with a total renewal and extension of the term.
The Treasury bought dollars during the week and we moved closer to paying the amortization and yields of Treasury bonds in dollars without resorting to the American swap. On the other hand, the government would negotiate a loan against guarantee of public securities for an amount close to… 7,000 million US dollars. If all this came to pass, we would pay off the national debt in January, and Reserves could be over $45,000 million.
On December 31st, Argentina would close the fiscal year, and it seems that way We would have no problem achieving the target of a primary surplus of 1.6% of GDPWe still don’t know if we can fulfill this Target of reserve accumulation.
In this context, international markets turned to us, even though the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter point and is between the 3.5% and 3.75% Annually, American stocks continue to show erratic behavior, which contributed to the decline in oil prices and left us with a bitter taste in the Argentine stock market.
Country risk is not decreasing, it is still difficult for us to return to trading below 600 points, we are missing the final push that will lead us to country risk below 600 points 550 pointsand a stock rally that threatens to start and then level off.
How stocks, interest rates and the dollar end the year
The Stocks are poised to break through resistance, but they have not yet shown the versatility to continue the rise, there is a lack of fuel, so the flow of money necessary to search for new highs is not coming in.
The While the exchange rate in pesos is falling significantly, the Tamar rate, which reflects the fixed-term interest rate on an amount exceeding $1,000 million, is 25% per annumwhile the Boncap ripens on February 13th T13F6 yields 27% annuallywhile the letter expires on May 29, 2026 S29Y6 brings an annual return of 30%. These rates no longer represent much of an incentive to invest in pesos.
He The wholesale dollar is showing sideways movement and is at $1,440. away from the upper limit of the band, which is located at $1,517, and without opportunities to reach that level, lateralization is more of an omen may decline to the middle of the band, which is at $1,220, This value is unlikely to be achieved, but is close to it $1,300 over the next few months.
On December 31st, the funds in the account will be released WAXthere they stayed Money laundering that didn’t want to pay a finethe amount would be $24,467 millionand it does not appear that this amount will leave the market immediately, although there will be precautionary movements.
From December 1, 2026 Companies will be able to send dividends abroad in 2025It doesn’t seem like this will happen immediately either.
For the whole year 2026 the inventory Debtswithout taking into account the maturities of the international financial organizations, which we assume will be renewed, would be at $13.8 billionin 2027 they would be up 18,000 million US dollarsthey add up between the two years $33.9 billionIt doesn’t seem like an amount that would cause a problem for the country. We are convinced that financing is possible without any problems.
New Caputo bonus and energy stocks, key year 2026
In this scenario, buy government bonds in dollars, such as the AN29, the new government bond with a maturity date of November 2029 and semi-annual interest payments 3.25% looks very attractive. The bonus is worth it $90.50 and that implies an internal rate of return of 9.7% per year.
However, The pocket interest comes from charging $6.50 per year and investing $90.5, which gives us 7.2% per year. and at the end of the period we will have an additional $9.50 when we collect principal on the bond 100 US dollars.
In matters Actionsthe problems come from outside Artificial intelligence companies are creating fear among investorsas they assume that they will not be able to maintain the profit levels observed so far. The technology So far, it has always been clear that companies outperform their results quarter after quarter, but the mistrust remains There is a rotation from securities listed in the US Nasdaq index to more traditional companies.
Although the stock turnover has been very small, that doesn’t stop us from being concerned. In addition, there is unpredictable behavior Bitcoin This creates uncertainty, quoted in the $90,000, and the Oil trading below $60 a barrel.
In Argentina the market continues to show sideways behavior, we believe that it will ultimately determine the rise, we have few wheels left to end the year and not We have to rule out the possibility of an acceleration in prices that would drive many securities to new highs.
Our focus will be on the companies most exposed to the issue Oil, gas and energy, as in the case of Vista, YPF and Pampa Energía.
Without expecting devaluation and with low peso rates, Argentina’s new bond and energy stocks look like the best place to spend the holidays. The country risks heading towards 600 points.
About The Author
