Governor Cláudio Castro (PL) plans to resign after Carnival, in the second half of February, to run for a Senate seat in the 2026 elections. The decision has been in the works for a few weeks and was reported to the blog team by allies with whom he discusses the electoral scenario in the state.
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The governor told these interlocutors that it was not necessary for him to remain in office until the end of the legal deadline in the event of non-compliance, i.e. April 2026, and that the best would be to be able to leave as soon as possible to embark on the campaign. He would take advantage of the public visibility of Carnival to take advantage of the electorate and then hit the road.
However, everything will depend on the political-judicial and police framework in Rio de Janeiro. And also how to work together so that Castro puts in his place a man of confidence: Nicola Miccione, today secretary of the Civil House.
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Because Rio is experiencing a very atypical situation. Part of the line of succession simply ceased to exist. The vice governor, Thiago Pampolha, resigned in May to take a post at the TCE due to disagreements with Castro. And the president of the Assembly (Alerj), Rodrigo Bacellar, was arrested by the PF and then released with an electronic bracelet on his ankle, although he remains a deputy and is removed from command of the State Parliament.
The Rio Constitution provides that, if the government becomes vacant after the second half of the term, the president of the Court of Justice, the current judge Ricardo Couto de Castro, will take over, who has thirty days to organize indirect elections.
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According to the interpretation of the governor’s allies, in the event of a vacancy in the position, the new president of Alerj, Guilherme Delaroli (PL), would not be able to take over because he is acting in the interim.
If this understanding prevails, which seems to be the case for now, the choice of the new head of government will be made by Alerj herself in an indirect election – then any citizen can be a candidate and not just a state deputy.
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The governor has already started campaigning for Miccione behind the scenes. He argued that, having no political ambitions, his trusted man could benefit from the support of more political currents and remain in government until the end. Several allies have already been approached by the governor to discuss this proposal.
But for Miccione to take over, this whole joint needs to be well oiled. One of the biggest beneficiaries – besides Castro himself, who would continue to indirectly control the Guanabara Palace – would be the mayor of Rio, Eduardo Paes (PSD), candidate for government in 2026.
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Without a direct competitor at the helm, Paes would gain momentum to try to broaden his support, particularly where he tends to be most electorally fragile, in Baixada Fluminense and within the state.
Another alternative for Castro, much less popular but still on the table, would be to resign to run for office. Those who defend this possibility are closely monitoring the situation of the TSE governor, where he, along with Bacellar, faces impeachment proceedings for abuse of political and economic power in the so-called “Ceperj scandal”.
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In the case, revealed by the UOL in 2022, the existence of a “secret payroll” of the Rio government was discovered, with 45,000 people appointed to temporary positions at Ceperj itself and at the State University of Rio de Janeiro (Uerj), among them allies and electoral supporters of the governor.
Castro’s situation, already very critical before the electoral court, improved after the police operations against drug trafficking in the Alemão complex. Faced with the growing popularity of the governor, the TSE ministers ended up rallying around a political file demanded by one of them, Antonio Carlos Ferreira, thus delaying the conclusion of the process.
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A wing close to the governor claims that, given that Bacelar is already in the crosshairs of the justice system and even had his mandate revoked, Castro’s resignation could lead to a loss of meaning in the process and its extinction.
All because, after Bacellar was arrested for leaking information about the PF operation that arrested state deputy TH Joias for involvement in the Red Command, even ministers who could vote for acquittal could not do so.
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The problem is that most of the governor’s allies in the legal community believe resignation would eliminate the risk of impeachment, but not the risk of ineligibility, which could still arise.
This is why Castro’s plan A today is to put pressure on Brasilia to try to ensure that more ministers ask to see the process at the TSE in order to postpone it indefinitely and disengage as soon as possible to advance in the Senate race.
That’s why Castro works every other day.
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